The US Working-Class Depression: "Let's all pretend we couldn't see it coming."

How is the working-class Depression of 2020 similar to the other 47 financial downturns in US history? 

Downturns are frequently precipitated by poor economic and cultural practices and preceded by lots of signals: over-speculation, overuse of resources, oversupplies of goods, and exploitation of labor. What I see are many poor practices brought on by corruption--with overconsumption, climate change, growing inequality, and moral degeneration at the root.

The "disrupters" (21st century robber barons) have enabled an alienating and anomic system that is highly dysfunctional for most of the planet, using "algorithms of oppression." And this cannot be solved with data alchemy, marketing, and other forms of sophistry.

Put down your iPhone for a minute and ponder these rhetorical questions:

• How did people not know that another economic crisis was around the corner?
• Doesn't anyone have a sense of US economic history?
• Doesn't anybody read? Even a little?
• Wasn't it only a dozen years ago that we faced a similar crisis?  
  

Warm Koolaid (2016) signified corporate America's use of myths and distractions to sedate the masses. 

How long have we known about all of this dysfunction? Academics have known about the effects of global climate change and growing US inequality since at least the 1980s. The Panic of 2020 should be a lesson so that we don't have a larger economic, social and environmental collapse in the future.

Who will hear the warnings and do something constructive for our future? Or is this Covid crisis another opportunity for the rich to cash in on the tragedy?

The answer lies, in part, to an ignorance of history and science, and oversupply of low-grade information, poor critical thinking skills, and lots of distractions. That's in addition to the massive greed and ill will by the rich and powerful.

US downturns are baked into this oppressive system. And crises are used to further exploit working families. With climate change and a half century of increasing inequality, these situations are likely to worsen.

"An economy based on mass deception, exploitation, degradation and oppression, violence, war, and massive environmental destruction...is unsustainable."

Workers will resist and fight oppression; they always do, but will they have a voice as the US faces another self-induced crisis, as trillions are doled out to those who already have trillions?

Here are the dates of the largest economic downturns.

1797-1800

1807–1814

1819–1824

1837–1843

1857–1860

1873–1879 (The Long Depression)

1893–1896 (The Long Depression)

1907–1908

1918–1921 (World War I, Spanish Flu, Panic of 1920-21)

1929–1933 (Stock Market Crash, Great Depression)

1937–1938 (Great Depression)

Feb-Oct 1945

Nov 1948–Oct 1949

July 1953–May 1954

Aug 1957–April 1958

April 1960–Feb 1961

Dec 1969–Nov 1970

Nov. 1973– March 1975

Jan-July 1980

July 1981–Nov 1982

July 1990–March 1991

Mar-Nov 2001

December 2007 – June 2009 (The Great Recession)

March 2020-

We live in an economic system that is unsustainable, unjust, and exploitative. While many of us in academia and the thought industry have known this for decades, those with greater wisdom have known for centuries. Techies and disrupters think it can all be solved with technology, not with profound wisdom. The ultimate in hubris and reductionism. We have to change the system politically, socially, and culturally. We have to be wiser.

How do we do that, radically change society, when our economic system has driven us in the wrong direction for so long? Some of these lessons can be learned from working class history, but they have to be applied with wisdom.

Academic Capitalism and the next phase of the College Meltdown (updated January 26, 2022)

It appears we have entered a new phase of Academic Capitalism and the College Meltdown. The previous phase involved College Mania! and the growth of the "educated underclass" (including gig workers, adjuncts and postdocs), Wall Street over-speculation, the divestment of corporations from employee benefits, and the rise and fall of for-profit colleges: Corinthian Colleges, ITT Tech, Education Management Corporation, Apollo Group, Education Corporation of America, and Laureate Education.  

Enrollment at proprietary schools is down about 40 percent from its peak in 2010 and higher education enrollment has dropped every year for the last decade.  In absolute numbers, community colleges have taken the largest hit.  Regional public universities have also experienced large enrollment declines.

At other schools, student aid has shifted from "needs based" to "merit based" making college choice for low- and moderate income families an even riskier choice. 

Student loan debt has crippled millions of working families, but neoliberal experts at Goldman Sachs and the Federal Reserve do not see a significant problem. 

According to the Federal Reserve, the student debt problem is ameliorated by the decline in births to people of lower socio-economic status.  The FED has also consistently reported that the debt is not a huge drag on the economy (less than 0.05 percent per year). Those developments, along with an anemic but growing student debt movement, have meant that the chance for progressive and meaningful change is limited under the Biden administration, but possible in the long run.  

This new phase of the College Meltdown has strong roots in the 1980s and involves the continued growth of the educated underclass (including elite overproduction in higher education) and more bulls*t jobs, the privatization of public higher education, the proliferation and consolidation of online program managers (OPMs) working for name brand and lesser known schools, non-profit subprime colleges, robocolleges, continued grade inflation, and the fall of the US federal student loan program. In 2020 and 2021, higher education also received three massive federal bailouts.  

Larger developments include the resurgence of authoritarianism, the hollowing out of America, and the global climate change crisis.  Despite these glaring existential problems, a looming college enrollment cliff in 2026, and growing dismay by working families, irrational exuberance and false optimism continues among most college business officers and middle-class consumers.  

Will austerity and excesses in the system lead to even more dramatic failures? Will the states and federal government ask for more transparency and accountability of the government funds that keep the system afloat?

What should we be observing in this new phase:  

1. The growth (and power) of the "educated underclass"

2. The effects of student loan debt on working families and social institutions (including religion and the economy) 

3. The state of the student loan forgiveness movement and popular opinion about student loan forgiveness

4. The health of the US Department of Education's Student Loan Portfolio

5. The growth of Online Program Managers

6. The degree that public universities are serving their citizens

7. The amount of money spent on marketing and advertising in higher education

8. Analyses of the FED, big banks, and rating agencies about the K-12 pipeline, higher education, student loan debt, and the growth of the educated underclass 

9. Local, state, and federal responses to "savage inequalities" in the K-12 pipeline, student loan debt, and the growth of the "educated underclass"

10. The rise of authoritarianism/neofascism in US education and the US as a whole  (e.g. mass surveillance, anti-intellectualism, hate crimes)

11. In deference to Bryan Alexander and his upcoming book "Universities on Fire" I must include global climate change as a phenomenon that must be observed and dealt with.  Failure to address this existential problem makes the other issues irrelevant.  

References

• Lawsuit alleges top colleges illegally collude to limit financial aid (Ivana Saric, Axios)
• USC Pushed a $115,000 Online Degree. Graduates Got Low Salaries, Huge Debts (Lisa Bannon and Andrea Fuller, WSJ)
• The Semi-Rich and Elite Overproduction (Matthew Stewart, Peter Turchin and Higher Ed)
• Student Debt From Private Lenders Hits All-Time High (Alexis Gravely, Inside Higher Education)
• Students Are Living In Hotels & Cars Due To Lack Of Campus Housing In California (Dantee Ramos)
• The Grade Inflation–College Completion Connection (Elizabeth Redden, Inside Higher Education)
• Low Literacy Levels Among U.S. Adults Could Be Costing The Economy $2.2 Trillion A Year (Forbes)
• Colleges See Best Gains in Decades Thanks to Private Investments (Janet Lorin, Bloomberg)
• Enrollment algorithms are contributing to the crises of higher education (Alex Engler, Brookings Institution)
• A Generation of American Men Give Up on College: ‘I Just Feel Lost (Douglas Belkin, WSJ)
• The Great Master’s-Degree Swindle (Kevin Carey, CHE)
• The Number of Colleges Continues to Shrink (Doug Lederman, Inside Higher Education)
• Pennsylvania system board votes to merge 6 institutions into 2 (Jeremy Bauer-Wolf, Higher Ed Dive)
• ‘Financially Hobbled for Life’: The Elite Master’s Degrees That Don’t Pay Off (Melissa Korn and Andrea Fuller, WSJ)
• Spring Numbers Show 'Dramatic' Drop In College Enrollment (Elissa Nadworny, NPR)
• States Step In To Stop Colleges Holding Transcripts Ransom For Unpaid Bills (Jon Marcus, NPR)
• Bond Boom Comes to America’s Colleges and Universities (Juliet Chung and Melissa Korn, WSJ)
• Colleges Could Lose $183 Billion During Pandemic (Emma Whitford, IHE)
• A Brutal Tally: Higher Ed Lost 650,000 Jobs Last Year (Dan Bauman, CHE)
• Tempering the Baby Bust Financial Hit (Phillip B. Levine, IHE)

This article was updated November 11, 2021 to include a link to elite overproduction in higher education and on January 26, 2022 to include a list of recent references.