Higher Education Inquirer

Tuesday, July 30, 2019

HEI Resources

[Updated January 8, 2023)

Bibliography

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Alexander, Bryan (2023). Universities on Fire. Johns Hopkins Press.
Angulo, A. (2016). Diploma Mills: How For-profit Colleges Stiffed Students, Taxpayers, and the American Dream. Johns Hopkins University Press.
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Arum, R. and Roksa, J. (2011). Academically Adrift: Limited Learning on College Campuses. University of Chicago Press.
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Activists, Coalitions, Innovators, and Alternative Voices

College Choice and Career Planning Tools

Innovation and Reform

Higher Education Policy

Data Sources

Trade publications

Saturday, July 20, 2019

When does a New York college become an international EB-5 visa scam?

In 2011, Sherry Li hatched the idea to create a $6 billion Chinese Disneyland in the Catskills, with a for-profit college, a casino, shopping venues, eateries, Chinese-themed rides, and a community full of wealthy Communist Chinese immigrants...just a few miles away from nearby villages of American peasants. The ideas were Trump-like, and like several of Donald Trump's business efforts, most likely to fail without political ties at all levels, and lots of money. In this case, Li needed hundreds of millions just to start, most from wealthy Chinese investors. Together with her business associate Mike Wang, Li paid out large sums of money to establish political ties, but politicians claim not to know her. In 2019, this fantastic scheme, whittled down to a school with no buildings, no students, and one person sitting at a desk, looks more like a swindle. But without victims coming forward, and most are unlikely to come forward, this relatively unknown businesswoman will continue what can now be called a scam.

(Note: I have tried communicating with Sherry Li and Mike Wang, her media director, several times via phone, email, and social media. Someone at the Thompson Education Center does answer the phone, and says "they are out of the country." But this person cannot tell me when they left or when they are returning to the US. When I mentioned that their social media was not updated or even monitored, she admitted "we're not operating anything.")

Related link: Visa Mill Promoters Drop $760K on Key Republicans and NY Governor Andrew Cuomo (2018)

China City of America is a multi-phased construction project planned for the town of Thompson, Sullivan County, in the Catskill Mountains region of the U.S. state of New York. The current project, Thompson Education Center (TEC), is a proposed college for foreign students, situated in a 573-acre parcel which borders a state-protected wetland.

In December 2011, China City LLC applied to be a USCIS recognized EB-5 visa Regional Center, but the business was never approved by US Homeland Security. The EB-5 immigrant investor program grants permanent residency to foreign investors in exchange for job-creating investments in the United States. The 880 Regional Centers sponsor capital investment projects for foreign entrepreneurs seeking green card status. Approximately 85 percent of EB-5 participants are Chinese, but there is a quota system, and waits for Chinese applicants can be as long as 15 years.

More than a year later, China City America publicly presented its idea to build a 2,200-acre Chinese theme park, hotel, and casino for an estimated $6 billion. According to The Economist, the plan "would attract 1.5 million visitors annually" and "transform the struggling economy" in upstate New York while seducing thousands of wealthy Chinese investors through the federal EB-5 visa program. The initial capital investment of $325 million would include $127.5 million from EB-5 investors, $132.5 million from equity investors, and $65 million from the U.S. government.

According to the scheme, each Chinese client would pay a small investment up front: a $65,000 non-refundable deposit. One catch was that in return, Li's business would have to quickly create at least 10 new jobs per investor. Local, national, and international media articles conveyed a variety of interests and concerns about the project while local officials and residents expressed both hope and skepticism.

[The initial presentation by Sherry Li starts at about 7:15 in this Youtube video. The comments are in some cases brutally honest, in other cases racist.]

Sherry Xue Li, an Oyster Bay, Long Island businesswoman, has been the chief executive officer and founder of China City of America. Li reported to the Associated Press that she came to the US in 1991, at the age of 19, and has a background in development and finance. Everything about her wealth seems to be a mystery that can only be gleaned from detective work by media outlets and groups like Defeat China City of America on Facebook.

According to her LinkedIn page, Sherry Li has a master's degree from NYU and was a Vice President of Hengli International Corporation (1995-1998), Executive Assistant at Money Securities (1997-1999), and President of China Financial Services (2003-2011).

SEC records show that Sherry Xue Li had been a major shareholder in BRS Group, Inc., a Delaware company dealing in scrap copper imports to China and China Electronic Holdings. Sherry Xue Li sold her stake in China Electronic in 2010 and BRS in 2011. In the video you will see in a moment, Sherry Li also mentions that she has a young child.

According to Lachlan Markay at The Daily Beast, "Li rarely, if ever, talks to the press, issuing her statements mainly through press releases in which she boasts of her meetings with Republican officeholders and Trump administration officials." The other officer of the Thompson Education Center is Mike Lianbo Wang who has appeared in a few TEC press releases.

At a 2013 town council meeting where Sherry Li first pitched the plan, she stated that "Each dynasty will have its building and will have rides go with it," China City’s website features golden dragons, and projects an initial investment of $325 million — with $10 million going to a "Temple of Heaven," $24 million on a hotel and entertainment complex, and $20 million to construct a 'Forbidden City.'" In its second meeting with the town council, Thomas J. Shepstone represented China City. Shepstone was known in the region as a defender of fracking. According to Paula Medley of the Basha Kill Area Association the project couldn't be developed on the scale proposed by China City without damaging environmentally sensitive wetlands.

In 2014, Town of Thompson supervisor Bill Rieber became frustrated with Li's constantly shifting plans and the Town of Thompson declined to approve the project, but the project was granted approval for three wells in 2016. In the same year, Sullivan county lawyer Jacob Billig sued China City of America for failing to pay him fees for service. A settlement was reached out of court for $25,000.

Thompson Education Center

While the larger China City project has stalled, the Thompson Education Center (TEC) is still being planned. The proposed for-profit college campus is on a 573 acre parcel of land near Route 17, Exit 112, which borders Wild Turnpike in Thompson, New York and extends to the town of Mamakating. The mostly undeveloped land for the project is in proximity to an environmentally protected wetland, the Harlen Swamp Wetland Complex. It is also near Monticello, New York, a village with a poverty rate of about 36 percent. TEC press releases have promised that the "high-end" project would create at least 20,000 jobs.

Thompson Education Center plans to have a school of business, a film & arts school, and programs in nursing and medical training, culinary arts, high school equivalency and executive and vocational training. The project includes four classroom buildings, student dormitories, student townhouses and a student center. TEC claims to have entered into agreements with US and Chinese high schools, colleges, education institutions and systems to provide students to the institution. TEC claims also that it has been working with several U.S. accredited colleges on undergraduate programs and ESL programs.

In a January 2017 presentation to the Monticello Rotary, Sherry Li claimed that China City had executed letters of understanding with the Catskill Regional Hospital for its nursing program, and with Phoenix, a Chinese media company that has educated 80,000 students.

According to the Wall Street Journal, in June 2017 Lianbo Wang donated $329,500 to a joint fund between President Donald Trump’s campaign and the Republican National Committee (RNC). About $86,000 was diverted to the RNC’s legal fund. Politico also reported on the large donations by Wang and Li.

In August 2017, Thompson Education Center appeared before the Town of Thompson, with a plan for a campus that would include 732 dorm rooms for 2,508 students, 276 homes for faculty members, and a college president’s house to be built in a “Founding Trustee Village.” Another source stated that the campus would also include a community center, three recreational buildings, three playgrounds, a sports stadium, a performing arts center, a library and museum, a conference center, a business center, a medical center and an inn for visitors.

In September 2017, TEC sponsored a golf tournament benefiting the Catskill Regional Medical Center (CRMC) Foundation. Ms. Li also visited Congressman Steve Stivers, Chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, in Washington, D.C.

In 2018, residents sought for a revocation of a permit that the Fallsburg, New York building department had granted for a 9,000-square-foot building, claiming that the building was not a residential structure. The property is adjacent to the Thompson Education Center and is owned by Sherry Li.

Epoch Times reported that Sherry Li was featured in Chinese media promoting the school "as an 'easy' way to get an American green card." The May 17, 2018 Economist issue noted that Chinese media said that "investors in the scheme will find emigrating to America 'so easy.'" But the current wait time for Chinese nationals to receive an EB-5 visa is a decade and a half, and a new regulation for EB-5 visas may substantially raise the price for obtaining a green card.

In January 2019, at the Ivy Football Association Dinner, Sherry Li's Thompson Education Center said they planned to provide application counseling, exam preparation and tutoring for students by The Butler Method. Then in February, TEC announced plans to offer the Ivy League Prep program, to give students with sports trauma treatment-related classes, noting that the courses could be "transferred to Ivy League universities for college credits." At the time, TEC also reported that the project received three well permits, and that the construction road was completed, which should not have been news--the permits had been issued in 2016. The for-profit college with no buildings and no students also reportedly signed contracts with schools in China "to deliver 2,700 nursing program students every year." On a trip to Thailand in March 2019, Ms. Li met with the president of Thonburi University and discussed educational cooperation between TEC, its partners schools and colleges, and the Bangkok school.

In the same press release, Sherry Li's organiation reported that

"College Town covers an area of 650 acres, with over 5 million square feet of the construction area for educational campus and ancillary facilities. TEC has partnered with many prestigious universities in Unites States, planned to establish courses including, business schools, media arts, medical academies, culinary, various MBAs, special license training, high schools and their affiliated facilities to create an intelligent high-end university community. In 2019, Thompson Education Center will work with International University Alliance under the Ministry of Education to open 50 Thompson Education Center Extension campuses in China."

Meanwhile the Facebook and Twitter accounts for Thompson Education Center lie dormant: a giveaway that something is very wrong with this picture.

Thursday, July 11, 2019

Music Videos of the College Meltdown

While I was updating my College Meltdown bibliography and writing a review of College is Bullshi*t, I found an enormous number of Youtube music videos dedicated to student loan debt. Scholarly sources are fine, but they don't get people to move. These videos vary in quality and genre, from blues to rap, to pop, heavy metal, and country. But you gotta listen. My favorites are Eatin' Me Alive by Ramy B. and Dee-1's Sallie Mae Back. An extremely popular tune, Stressed Out by Twenty-one Pilots, has just one line about student loan debt, but definitely hits on the consequences of youth and making choices.

Works Cited
B., Ramy. “EATIN' ME ALIVE (STUDENT LOAN RAP).” YouTube, YouTube, 10 Feb. 2019, www.youtube.com/watch?v=C44O_GUtcQs.

chescaleigh. “Beyoncé ‘Countdown’ Parody: Student Loan Countdown.” YouTube, YouTube, 8 Oct. 2011, www.youtube.com/watch?v=96KiSEMHy7Y.

Cornell, Charles. “Student Loans, You've Got Me By The Balls - Charles Cornell.” YouTube, YouTube, 12 June 2019, www.youtube.com/watch?v=7aJWUA3-E0E%2Bhttps%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fwatch%3Fv.

Dee1music. “Dee-1 - Sallie Mae Back (Official Video).” YouTube, YouTube, 11 Feb. 2016, www.youtube.com/watch?v=JqbXQa05Z6c.

Dorsey, C. Richaude. “Studen Loan Song.” YouTube, YouTube, 3 Nov. 2016, www.youtube.com/watch?v=JZG8H-1pwu4%2Bhttps%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fwatch%3Fv.

ebonysongstress. “Student Loan Song by C. Richaude.” YouTube, YouTube, 5 Jan. 2008, www.youtube.com/watch?v=ILcTrUHqHa0&list=PLBiTf7f_nVjgtZ7HCrrPEHY9xvIIHSkXd.

Grosscup, Ben. “‘Four Years of College’ (Parody of ‘Sixteen Tons’ by Ben Grosscup).” YouTube, YouTube, 28 Feb. 2016, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_sWosZ2qshc

Hammer, Dave. “Student Loan Blues.” YouTube, YouTube, 2 Apr. 2013, www.youtube.com/watch?v=QQtb8EtD458%2Bhttps%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fwatch%3Fv.

Harris, Lisa E. “Sally Mizzle (The Student Loan Song).” YouTube, YouTube, 6 Oct. 2016, www.youtube.com/watch?v=_WHXc7FTkPQ.

Lazer, Glenn. “Student Debt Metal Song.” YouTube, YouTube, 13 June 2019, www.youtube.com/watch?v=w5JBNcTDtVo%2Bhttps%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fwatch%3Fv.

pincgator. “PINC GATOR STUDENT LOAN SONG.” YouTube, YouTube, 29 Oct. 2008, www.youtube.com/watch?v=qD8KVaMbF7E.

“Twenty One Pilots: Stressed Out [OFFICIAL VIDEO].” YouTube, YouTube, 27 Apr. 2015, www.youtube.com/watch?v=pXRviuL6vMY.

Wilson, David. “Simple Mind (The Student Loan Song) by David Wilson.” YouTube, YouTube, 6 June 2016, www.youtube.com/watch?v=hDVtuoPmTPQ%2Bhttps%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fwatch%3Fv.
?v=_sWosZ2qshc.

Sunday, July 7, 2019

What happens when Big 10 grads think "college is bullsh*t"?

Pictures speak louder than words. And emotions move people more than rationality. And the harsh words that Mike Newman (aka Ekim Namwen) speaks in his video "college is bullsh*t" express the anger and depression of a 30-something year old Ohio State graduate who gets it. While Newman's work is thoughtful and original, the emotions are common in many once-aspiring graduates from state flagship universities who never quite get ahead.

If you can deal with the critical tone and the emotions expressed in this video, it's well worth looking at it from start to finish. If not, start looking at it from 28:30. Newmans's intent has been to finish a serious decade-long documentary on higher education, but two recent suicides at OSU led him to speak out against the madness of higher education: its outrageous costs, its greedy anti-labor administration, and its uncaring bureaucracy.

The College Meltdown has been going on for more than a decade, and things are getting worse. Books critical of higher education could fill a book case or two. That's admirable. And of course, there are some great exceptions amid the meltdown, such as free community college, and potential free market innovations such as TuitionFit, but the general direction of US higher education is downward.

The current reality is that millions of Americans are traumatized and silently suffering. Many Americans regret borrowing so much money to get the college degree they obtained, if they got a degree at all. The average family holds about $47,000 in student loan debt. And aside from a few student debt groups (like the Debt Collective and I Am Ai) and a few adjunct groups, there is very little resistance. Calls for change are met by other calls (by the rich and powerful) to abandon the dreams of higher education.

We can't blame the problems of higher ed just on higher education. US inequality has been increasing for a half century, and it displays itself across society, from "savage inequalities" in the college pipeline to how end of life is medicalized and made so expensive, at the expense of state and federal budgets.

But there has to be some recognition of the damage that has been done by business minded college administrators and college boards, by the madness of crushing student loan debt and underemployment, and the system that turns almost everything good into sh*t.

Thursday, July 4, 2019

US Departments of Education, Defense, and Veterans Affairs Shirk Responsibilities to Servicemembers, Veterans, and Their Families

As a military veteran working to expose some of the most predatory practices by subprime colleges, the idea that anyone at the US Department of Education, US Department of Defense (DOD) or Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) would say "Thank you for your service" rings hollow, especially on the 4th of July.

The US government has systematically shirked its oversight of subprime colleges that target servicemembers, veterans, and their families, especially during the Trump Administration.

I have to give some credit to President Obama for trying to do something against these schools, with Executive Order 13607, but much of that work has been undermined by DOD and VA officials.

I have filed a FOIA and a complaint about Waste, Fraud, and Abuse to DOD, but have been told not to hold my breath. And I have also filed a complaint with the VA, but have even less faith that they will do their job.

Tuesday, July 2, 2019

Alaska is Leading the College Meltdown. Who's Next?

Related graph: State by State Funding for Higher Education, 2008-2017

In an recent article, titled "Enrollment declines, campus closings, economic losses, and the hollowing out of America," I posted the state-by-state enrollment drops from 2011 to 2018. These numbers are posted here. Alaska was at the top of the list, with a 31 percent drop in enrollment. However, there are other states with significant enrollment losses.

Besides Alaska, New Mexico, Hawaii, Michigan, Illinois, Oregon, Missouri, West Virginia, Montana, Minnesota, Arkansas, Louisiana, Kentucky, Indiana, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Wisconsin have had the largest enrollment losses. What states do about the losses has varied, from austerity and tax cuts on the right side to prison reduction and social investments, such as free community colleges on the left.

What drives austerity, and higher education cuts, depends on many factors, and politics are important. State economies, movement of people and companies out of state, obligations to K-12 education, Medicaid, and infrastructure, enrollment losses and tax structures also play a large part in how dramatic these cuts will be. Alaska's recent cuts are a worst case scenario, but that doesn't mean we won't see dramatic funding cuts in other states and counties in the coming years.

I was reminded by one College Meltdown reader that Alaska was not the first state to feel Republican slash and burn tactics. Louisiana, under Bobby Jindal, felt it.

In fact, eight states cut funding more than 30 percent from 2008 to 2017: Arizona, Louisiana, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Alabama, Oklahoma, South Carolina, and New Mexico.

While Democrats and Republicans are diverse within their own parties, we can take a first look at the situation by charting higher education enrollment and state control and make the hypothesis that states with the largest enrollment losses and Republican control of state politics are most vulnerable to austerity, at least in the short run.

My first guess for the most vulnerable states? Missouri, West Virginia, Arkansas, Kentucky, and Indiana, and as many as 18 other states, because they are Republican controlled. But many others will have to make tough economic decisions, to increase taxes, reduce funding, and to make cuts elsewhere. This is especially true in states like Illinois, Michigan, and Wisconsin. The problem with raising taxes is that many people don't like to pay taxes, and they see higher education as an individual choice rather than a public investment. In some cases, they also see (or hear about) administrative largesse and university amenities that border on insanity.

Smart leaders will look for smart (and just) answers.

Saturday, June 29, 2019

Laureate Education: Here For Good?

Related link: Vultures Coming After Laureate (2016)
Related link: Laureate Education Turned Against Democracy in Turkey and Latin America (2016)
Related link: Department of Justice Gives Green Light to Laureate Education to Continue Corruption (2018)

Baltimore-based Laureate Education Inc. (LAUR) is fighting for survival. The international for-profit system of colleges is no longer backed by the Clinton Foundation. Its founder Doug Becker was ousted in 2018 with an enormous golden parachute. And its rich and powerful investors are getting more impatient. After corruption scandals in Chile, Turkey, Spain, and now Brazil and after four years of downsizing, Laureate's slogan, "Here For Good" must be posed as a question rather than a statement.

For a decade and a half, CEO Doug Becker went on a buying spree of colleges across the globe, with a boatload of famous people to pitch for them. But since 2015, Laureate has sold or shut down more than 30 schools, and it faces enormous headwinds in the countries where it continues to operate. 2018 and 2019 have been particularly difficult. This year, LAUR even threatened to sell its big US moneymaker, subprime Walden University.

Walden grants more doctorates to African Americans than Howard University, Jackson State, and Georgia State combined.

Brazil, Laureate's largest segment, is facing reducing revenues after student aid was cut. Brazil's President, Jair Bolsonaro, who is terrible for the country is a wild card at best for Laureate. In earlier years, someone in the company might have been able to bribe officials, but those days are probably gone.

Laureate cut corners in Brazil, though, by allegedly forging documents and hiring teachers for classes they weren't qualified for.

While Laureate has continued to pare down its $3.5B debt to just above $2B, most of its profits have come from selling off more than 30 schools. Here's a list of the schools it has sold, closed, or lost contracts with since 2015. More are likely to be sold off in 2019 and 2020. Laureate sold off Bilgi University, but forgot to mention the terrible details.

Centro Universitário do Norte – UniNorte (Brazil) (sold 2019)
Les Roches Jin Jiang International Hotel Management College (China) (sold 2016)
Xi'an Jiaotong-Liverpool University XJTLU (China) (Laureate's online program partnership with the university was discontinued in 2018. The degrees were awarded by University of Liverpool.)
European University--EUC (Cyprus)
Universidad de Las Americas--UDLA (Ecuador)
École Centrale d’Electronique (France)
École Supérieure du Commerce Extérieur (France)
Institut Français de Gestion (France)
BiTS--Business and Information Technology School (Germany)
Pearl Academy (India) (in sale negotiations as of May 2019)
University of Petroleum and Energy Studies--UPES (India) (in sale negotiations as of May 2019)
Domus Academy (Italy)
Nuova Accademia di Belle Arti (Italy)
Universidad del Desarrollo Profesional--UNIDEP (Mexico)
Université Internationale de Casablanca (Morocco)
University of Liverpool (Laureate's online program partnership with the university was discontinued in 2018. All degrees were awarded by University of Liverpool.)
University of Roehampton (Laureate's online program partnership with the university was discontinued in 2018. All degrees were awarded by University of Roehampton.)
Instituto Tecnologico del Norte (Peru)
Universidade Europeia de Lisboa (Portugal) (sold 2018)
Instituto Português de Administração de Marketing (Portugal) (sold 2018)
Monash University (South Africa) (sold 2019)
Universidad Europea de Madrid (Spain) (sold 2018)
Glion Institute of Higher Education (Switzerland and UK)
Universidad Europea de Valencia (Spain)
Universidad Europea de Canarias (Spain)
Bilgi University (Turkey) (sold 2019)
National Hispanic University (US) (closed 2015)
Santa Fe University of Art and Design (US) (closed 2018)
Kendall College (US) (sold 2018)
University of St. Augustine for Health Sciences (US) (sold 2019)
Stamford International University (Thailand) (sold 2019)
Royal Academy of Culinary Arts (Jordan) (sold 2016)
Al Kharj Female College of Excellence (Saudi Arabia)
Higher Institute for Paper and Industrial Technologies--HIPIT (Saudi Arabia)
Higher Institute for Power and Water Technologies--HIWPT (Saudi Arabia)
Jeddah College of Excellence (Saudi Arabia)
Mecca Female College of Excellence (Saudi Arabia)
Riyadh Polytechnic Institute--RPI (Saudi Arabia)
Riyadh Tourism & Hospitality College of Excellence (Saudi Arabia)
Al Nammas Female College of Excellence (Saudi Arabia)

Wednesday, June 19, 2019

College Mania!: An Open Letter to the NY Fed (Opinion)

I just about had a heart attack reading the headlines from two NY Federal Reserve researchers in Buffalo, that college was still a "good investment" despite the costs. The authors, Jaison R. Abel and Richard Deitz, showed a few graphs indicating that college completion still resulted in significant wage premiums, and muttered something about “back of envelope” projections to prove their point.

Are these people mad? Have they not read Annie Nova (CNBC), Jillian Berman (Marketwatch) or Mike Vasquez (Chronicle of Higher Education)? Have they not glanced at Wikipedia or thelayoff.com or bothered to use IPEDS help? Have they read Suzanne Mettler’s “Degrees of Inequality”? Have they ever heard of the layoff.com or College Meltdown? Don't they listen to Dave Ramsey on the radio? The answer is no and probably no, no, no, no, no, no, definitely not because it’s too heavy, no, no, and no.

Have these guys no understanding of the outrageous costs of higher education: tuition, housing, board, text books, transportation, computers, fees, officially licensed college t-shirts, football tickets, concert tickets, pizza, beer, drugs, pregnancy tests, and who know what all else?

Don't they know about the millions who are underemployed after college, the millions that have delayed leaving home, delayed marriage, delayed having children, and delayed starting businesses? Don’t they know anyone who is suffering from the College Meltdown? Have they ever heard of the “gig economy” or talked to an “adjunct professor”? Don't they have friends or coworkers who have nervously cosigned on loans for their children?

Speaking of businesses, haven’t these NY Fed guys figured out that there is a failing for-profit college system, Bryant & Stratton College, luring people with slick ads, whose corporate headquarters is literally two blocks from their office? A school whose target demographics include single mothers with jobs and people with two jobs, who already can't make ends meet?

In 2019, subprime Bryant & Stratton College will be luring hardcore gamers with their esports programs. BSC already has junior college basketball at the dwindling Buffalo campus.

If you read the small print in the NY Fed article, these two wise guys from Buffalo oh so briefly mention that the wage premium doesn’t apply to 25 percent of the people who start. They note that the wage premium is muted in the 40 percent who don’t finish college. And the wealth premium, you know, the actual return on investment after trying to pay off the loans? Forget about it.

They don’t mention that college students are selling their bodies ("Sugar Babies") across the US or selling drugs to get through college. (For the record, I sold my body very cheap to the US Army for an ROTC scholarship to get out of Western Pennsylvania).

These guys don’t mention that more than 40 percent of all student debtors are not paying off their principal. Or that millions of Millennials with student debt are delaying marriage and kids, not starting families or businesses. And by having fewer kids, they are setting the nation up for another phase of the College Meltdown in 2026.

Nor did they note that peak enrollment was in 2010-11 and that numbers have decreased every year since then. I suppose they’d say that was all due to a great economy, like so many others who do not live near reality, even in Buffalo. Really, it would never have anything to do with outrageous prices or record-setting inequality.

And wait a second. Aren’t these two the guys who wrote College is Not for Everyone, back in 2014? What has happened? Have they too contracted College Mania?

Perhaps the men are talking about the business of education, which has been a good investment for some. The higher ed “racket” involving dorm building, restaurant building, gyms and climbing walls. Or the student loan business that’s booming and student loan asset-backed securities also known as SLABS. Or the online program managers that actually run colleges online. Or the marketing and ad agencies that are profiting hand over fist, as some students literally live in their cars or struggle with hunger. Or maybe they are talking about the bright future behind unregulated “human capital contracts” (What could go wrong?).

But why should I be so angry, literally fed up? The NY Fed is not the only organization feeding the “College Mania!” It’s everyone, aside from Dave Ramsey, Thomas Frank, and too few others. But who reads Thomas Frank? Hopefully it’s the same people who read the two guys from the NY Fed.

Saturday, June 8, 2019

Enrollment declines, campus closings, economic losses and the hollowing out of America

Once again, the National Student Clearinghouse report on college enrollment was enlightening, and devastating. US college enrollment has been declining steadily for at least eight years, and community colleges and for-profit colleges are hardest hit--but that's only part of the story.

State by state losses are not uniform. It appears that they mirror the hollowing out of America.

National Student Clearinghouse reported losses in 40 states, most notably in Alaska, Hawaii, New Mexico, Oregon, and Montana, and Illinois, Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, Indiana, Missouri, Oklahoma, Maryland, West Virginia, Florida, and South Carolina, all which have significant and complicated rural histories.

State	F2011	F2018	Loss/Gain
Alaska	35,473	24,910	31.80%
New Mexico	144,202	111,916	22.30%
Hawaii	65,638	52,043	20.70%
Michigan	633,576	496,668	21.60%
Illinois	758,074	598,316	21.10%
Oregon	253,403	204,007	19.40%
Missouri	411,508	338,230	17.80%
West Virginia	169,510	140,558	17.10%
Montana	55,945	46,610	16.70%
Minnesota	420,655	354,820	15.60%
Arkansas	178,628	151,238	15.30%
Louisiana	261,494	224,534	14.10%
Kentucky	277,688	239,774	13.70%
Indiana	402,850	349,547	13.20%
Oklahoma	211,151	182,507	13.60%
Pennsylvania	755,158	654,165	13.30%
Ohio	689,862	599,111	13.20%
Wisconsin	350,803	304,478	13.20%
Maryland	387,487	337,683	12.90%
North Dakota	56,359	49,329	12.40%
Wyoming	32,729	28,904	11.70%
Iowa	221,732	196,511	11.30%
Nebraska	141,944	126,561	10.80%
New York	1,191,463	1,063,775	10.70%
New Jersey	421,196	379,812	9.80%
Mississippi	180,310	163,428	9.40%
Kansas	203,748	184,721	9.30%
Massachusetts	477,423	433,745	9.10%
Florida	1,077,332	985,508	8.50%
Colorado	320,626	294,234	8.20%
Virginia	529,007	486,141	8.10%
Maine	70,051	64,383	8.10%
Washington	343,300	316,814	7.70%
Vermont	43,201	39,965	7.50%
South Carolina	246,121	229,940	6.60%
North Carolina	555,392	521,522	6.10%
Tennessee	320,979	302,520	5.80%
Rhode Island	72,722	68,503	5.80%
District of Columbia	77,652	73,813	4.90%
California	2,559,423	2,466,138	3.60%
Georgia	525,734	511,152	2.80%
Nevada	112,736	109,995	2.50%
Alabama	294,853	289,738	1.70%
Connecticut	193,381	187,010	1.40%
Delaware	56,103	56,196	0.00%
South Dakota	45,398	46,980	3.50%
Texas	1,431,062	1,485,924	3.80%
Idaho	96,649	100,937	4.40%
Arizona	427,789	448,323	4.80%
Utah*	254,731	344,895	35.40%
New Hampshire*	78,112	152,065	94.70%

A county by county analysis of enrollment patterns could provide even more understanding. In this case, we also see significant declines in urban areas that have been deindustrialized, depopulated, and underfunded.

Enrollment losses in some cases lead to campus closings, and in some cases these campus closings lead to economic hardship. Conservative economist Richard Vedder has been observing enrollment losses in the Midwest for years. And Elizabeth Hewitt described in detail the economic ripple effects for small college towns in a 2019 Hechinger Report. But the story was mostly about New England. And from what the NSC reports, some of the biggest losses are outside New England and the Midwest.

What's happening in your neck of the woods? Can someone tell us what's happening on in Alaska, Hawaii, and New Mexico, where enrollments are decreasing dramatically and for so many years? Is it just that the economy is doing well, or are there other important stories to tell?