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Wednesday, November 13, 2024

What's happening with higher education enrollment? (Bryan Alexander with Doug Shapiro)

This week, Bryan Alexander (Future Trends Forum) spoke with Doug Shapiro, Vice President for Research and Executive Director of the Research Center at the National Student Clearinghouse, to explore the latest college enrollment numbers.

Tuesday, November 12, 2024

College Mania!, College Meltdown, and the other "C" Words

What are we seeing in US higher education and American society today? Lower college enrollments (for some colleges), high student loan debt (for some consumers) and upward mobility and increasing wealth for others. Many of us hope to be the fortunate ones, through hard work and persistence.

Culture and society (including myths, marketing and advertising, and media) tell folks that higher education is essential and elite education is necessary for upward social mobility. Others see higher education, especially borrowing money to go to school, as a road to nowhere: of untold debt and unhappiness. What people are seeing would seem to be confusing, but it shouldn't be if we understand our system and how it works.

Capitalism (also known as neoliberalism) is the underlying program or structure that guides behavior in the US. We are immersed in it. It also guides other values that we may hold about family, religion, government, and the economy. Under this system, the differences between the rich and poor have been increasing for more than a half century and life expectancy and fertility rates are stagnant.

Consumers are bombarded with stories that reflect how we should perceive higher education. The stories that we see and hear may vary and may appear contradictory if we are willing to look at all sides. Some of the stories are myths, others are downright lies. Targeted marketing means that we may not get the same messages as others.

Class is how the program of capitalism works, with elites at the top, small business owners and managers in the middle, and workers who do the labor necessary to keep society running. These distinctions may be small in some places and enormous in others, and there may even be overlap in wealth and income. Social mobility is possible, but in the US social mobility is stagnant for many non-immigrants. Workers are sometimes appreciated but often unappreciated and even scapegoated.

Communities are diverse and cut across class boundaries and even geography. Groups seen as homogeneous are rarely that. And stereotypes are used (and misused) as a short hand for understanding other people or even ourselves.

Civics is a formal understanding how the program/system works and typically how to be a good citizen. The idea of what makes a good citizen varies. Civics can be used as a tool of social control or a tool of reform and innovation.

Conflict consists of opposing thoughts and actions. It can exist inside of us as well as outside, causing cognitive dissonance for those who are mindful. Some degree of conflict is necessary for society to be healthy. Too much conflict can destroy the fabric of society.

Monday, November 4, 2024

Can the newly formed PA Board of Higher Education do much for the People?

In 2024, Pennsylvania has formed a state Board of Higher Education. Can the organization create value for all its citizens and improve the Quality of Life for Pennsylvanians, or is it just another layer of bureaucracy whose major role is to maintain the status quo?

The Pennsylvania Board of Higher Education is composed of 21 members, representing postsecondary education, government, business, labor and students. Some schools like Penn State, Pitt, and Temple each have a representative. Other institutions, like the state's 15 community colleges and 10 PASSHE schools are represented by one person.

The University of Pennsylvania ($20.9 billion endowment and 1,085 acres of urban property), Carnegie-Mellon University ($2.7 billion and 157 acres of urban property), and other elite private schools are not represented and stand apart from the oversight.

What's the Mission?

There is no mention about how this new Board can make a difference. No progressive ideas or policies have been introduced other than that the organization seeks to ensure that there is no undue competition among the schools.

Wealth and Want in PA Higher Education

Pennsylvania has more than 150 colleges, universities, and technical schools. They are all connected by a harsh economic system that promotes increasing wealth and want. Pennsylvania's immense wealth is illustrated in a handful of elite and brand name colleges and universities primarily in and around its two major urban areas: Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. And wealth is demonstrated in their endowments and real estate holdings.

University of Pennsylvania: $20.9 billion and 1,085 acres of urban property

Pennsylvania State University: $4.44 billion and 22,484 acres of property statewide

Carnegie-Mellon: $2.7 billion and 157 acres of urban property

Thomas Jefferson University: $2.3 billion and 100 acres of urban property

Swarthmore: $2.2 billion and 425 acres of suburban property

Lehigh University: $1.8 billion and 2350 acres of suburban property

Bryn Mawr College: $1.6 billion and 135 acres of suburban property

Villanova University $1.5 billion and 408 acres of suburban property

University of Pittsburgh: $1.1 billion and 132 acres of suburban property

Drexel University: $1.1 billion and 96 acres of urban property

Lafayette College: $1 billion and 340 acres of suburban property

Bucknell: $1 billion and 450 acres of suburban property

Duquesne University: $1 billion and 50 acres of urban property

Temple University: $750 million and 115 acres of urban property

Haverford University: $643 million and 216 acres of suburban property.

Washington and Jefferson: $380 million and 60 acres of small-town property

Widener University: $90 million and 216 acres of urban property

The differences between life outside of Penn, Temple, and Drexel and other parts of Philadelphia (North and West Philly) are stark. And the Philadelphia suburbs that include some of the elite schools are reflective of wealth, power, and prestige. Scenes of wealth and want are also apparent in and around Pittsburgh.

State universities outside of these urban and suburban areas, aside from College Park, have been declining for more than a decade. The Community College of Philadelphia, a career lifeline for the working class, has one of the lowest graduation rates in the US. The same goes for Harrisburg Area Community College. Pennsylvania also has Lincoln University and Cheyney University of Pennsylvania: two Historically Black Colleges and Universities that have been historically underfunded and serve as lasting symbols of resistance against white supremacy, an ideology still deeply embedded in Pennsylvania's society and economy.

PA Economy: Growing Inequality and Rural Decline

Pennsylvania's economy is diverse yet unsustainable. It consists of traditional industries such as manufacturing and agriculture as well as healthcare, energy, technology, and education. Healthcare (reactive medicine) and energy (fossil fuels), in particular, are expensive for the state and expensive the planet.

The problems in Pennsylvania's higher education system extend beyond the schools represented in the new Board. These economic and social problems are persistent and worsening for the working class. Pennsylvania's population is stagnant, increasing slightly in urban areas and declining in rural areas.

There is also a demographic cliff with Baby Boomers reaching their 80s (and greater disability) and fewer children being born in the Commonwealth. Children living with Asset Limited, Income Constrained, Employed (ALICE) families is 41 percent.

Savage Inequalities in K-12 Education

Pennsylvania has some of the widest education gaps in the country. A national study found Pennsylvania at the bottom of all states in school funding fairness. Among the 50 states, Pennsylvania ranked 49th in the Black-white opportunity gap, 50th in the Hispanic-white opportunity gap, and 49th in the gap between students from low-income families and their wealthier peers.

Unequal Wealth Distribution

Pennsylvania is one of the most unequal states in the country, with the top 1% of earners making 21.7 times more than the bottom 99%.

The richest people in Pennsylvania are Jeff Yass ($29B), Michael Rubin ($11.5B), Victoria Mars ($9.7B), Arthur Dantchik ($7.3B), Thomas Hagen ($5.2B), Jeff Lurie ($4.9B), Maggie Hardy ($4.1B), Mary Alice Dorrance Malone ($3.7B), John Middleton ($3.7B), and Thomas Tull ($2.9B).

The average income of the top 1% is $1,100,962, compared to $50,830 for the rest of the state. Income inequality in Pennsylvania has been worsening since the 1970s. The richest 5% of households have incomes that are 11.7 times larger than the bottom 20%.

Over half of Pennsylvania's wealth is concentrated in six counties: Montgomery, Allegheny, Bucks, Chester, Delaware, and Philadelphia. The wealthiest county is Chester, with a median household income of $104,161 in 2020.

Regressive Tax Structure

Pennsylvania has a flat tax rate of 3 percent, and its corporate tax rate is a flat 8.49 percent and falling. The combined state personal income tax and local earned income tax led to Pennsylvania having the 18th highest income tax burden. Pennsylvania ranked 25th for its total per capita property tax burden. New Jersey, New York, and Maryland had a higher tax burden in both comparisons.

Mass Incarceration for Social Control, Deaths of Despair

Pennsylvania has the highest incarceration rate in the Northeast and the second highest rate in the country when including people on probation or parole. And its correctional system spends nearly $3 billion annually. Black adults make up 46% of Pennsylvania's prison population, even though they only make up 11% of the state's population. The flip side of the coin, deaths of despair (suicide, drug overdoses) are common among the working class in rural and urban areas.

Saturday, October 5, 2024

Lies, Damn Lies, and Projections: Higher Ed Business and the Enrollment Cliff

While nothing is for sure, we at the Higher Education Inquirer believe higher education enrollment is going to continue on a slow downward slope for the foreseeable future, and that it could get worse. Looking at the numbers we see, it's difficult to imagine anyone arguing this. But today there is a debate between those who believe in the enrollment cliff and those who do not.

The Debate

Carleton College Professor Nathan Grawe has used the term "enrollment cliff" to describe the decline that is projected to come to a number of states within the next two years and with a trend that will last for a number of years. He uses information from a number of sources, including the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (WICHE) to make these estimates. These projected declines are the result of a decline in births during and after the Great Recession. US fertility and birth rates have been declining for generations, but enrollment has been shored up by in-migration and higher rates of high school graduation. These rates could increase as abortions are criminalized.

US Department of Education enrollment projections are fueling the debate for enrollment cliff deniers. But HEI has observed that ED has been wrong in its projections for years and has largely maintained its faulty formula. Presumably the enrollment cliff deniers also don't believe in the projections by WICHE which predicts modest declines in the number of high school graduates. For the record, these deniers are not uniform in their beliefs, values, or their intentions.

University of Wisconsin-River Falls Professor Neil Kraus, author of the Fantasy Economy: Neoliberalism, Inequality, and the Education Reform Movement, believes that "in the aggregate, higher ed enrollments are fairly constant over time, and if you go back decades, have gradually gone up." Kraus has a point. Relatively stable birth rates would seemingly keep enrollments stable, but there are other social, economic, and political factors in the equation.

It's a Racket on Both Sides

Some enrollment deniers may not be so sincere. Many in the education business, including the Department of Education, have vested interests in believing everything is OK. But it's not OK. And while funding is important, it's not the entire answer, especially when the money goes into the wrong (greedy) hands, as it frequently does.

Higher education has become a racket that has garnered increasing public skepticism about its value. That does not mean that parents won't continue to buy into the college mania and encourage all their children to go to a college regardless of the costs, and the potential debt.

Some who believe in the enrollment cliff, and pitch it to others, may also be insincere. The President of the University of Idaho, for example, has used the enrollment cliff to rationalize their purchase of the University of Phoenix to shore up their revenues, even though Idaho is not likely to feel dramtic looses in enrollment. There are undoubtedly many others who are using this phenomenon to scare people into buying and selling their products and services.

Coming to a Consensus?

Perhaps the term "enrollment cliff" needs to be defined or the term to define the enrollment decline needs to be renamed. No one can deny that US higher education has seen an enrollment peak and a slow steady decline since 2011. There are also estimates that population declines will occur in many states, as a result of out-migration patterns that have been ongoing. There are other states that will continue to see enrollment gains, especially in the South and West. Maybe enrollment cliff is too harsh a term, but reduced enrollment cannot be ignored.

State Budgets Are Downsizing (Pew)

College Meltdown 3.0 Could Start Earlier (And End Worse) Than Planned

Baby Boomers Turning 80: The Flip Side of the 2026 Enrollment Cliff

State Universities and the College Meltdown

"20-20": Many US States Have Seen Enrollment Drops of More Than 20 Percent

US Department of Education Fails to Recognize College Meltdown

Forecasting the US College Meltdown

Monday, September 30, 2024

"White Labeling" in Online Higher Education: Simplilearn

Yesterday the NY Times published an article titled "Students Paid Thousands for a Caltech Boot Camp. Caltech Didn’t Teach It." The scandal is likely larger than this NYT article and the small, but important, bits of information in it. Simplilearn, the edtech company involved in the scheme, but not named in the title, is a growing for-profit business with offices in Bengaluru, India and San Francisco.

What makes the story interesting for consumers and consumer advocates is that like 2U-edX, we find another online program manager, Simplilearn, peddling elite university certificates that may not work out for those seeking better work opportunities. What makes the story doubly interesting is that Blackstone, a company with a trillion dollars in assets under management, holds a controlling interest in Simplilearn.

What makes it triply interesting (and not noted by the NY Times) is that GSV Ventures has also been involved in Simplilearn. GSV Ventures includes a number of high-profile names in education, business, and edtech, including Arne Duncan, Johny C. Taylor, Jr., Michael Moe, and Michael Horn.

Simplilearn also markets online certificates with other elite, brand names, including Purdue University, University of Massachusetts, Brown University, and UC San Diego. In June, Simplilearn stated that it was growing dramatically in revenue (35-45%) and becoming profitable. Consumers on Reddit, however, have made critical remarks about Simplilearn bootcamps.

Students can use Splitit, ClimbCredit or Klarna for buy now, pay later financing.

"White Labeling" in Edtech

According to edtech innovator and pioneer John Katzman (Noodle), "White labeling is done everywhere; your GE microwave is not made by GE, and Walgreens doesn't make ibuprofen. And note that these are non-credit, non-accredited programs. Still, I wouldn't put my university's name on other peoples' programs without clear disclosure. Tech and marketing are one thing; teaching and academic advisement are at the core of what a university does."

HEI Values Your Feedback

If there is anyone who has attended one of these bootcamps, please let us know how you financed the program and whether it has resulted in a positive or negative return on investment.

Related links:
Edtech Meltdown

2U Collapse Puts Sallie Mae and SLABS Back on the Radar (Glen McGhee)
OPM Market Landscape And Dynamics: Spring 2023 Updates (Phil Hill)
2U Expands College Meltdown to Elite Universities

Sunday, September 29, 2024

Layoffs in Higher Education

The Layoff.com is a "simple discussion board" for workers who would like to learn more about the rumors or possibility of job cuts in their organization. It's also been helpful for us to understand what has been happening behind the scenes in the US Higher Education business.

We have been observing and participating on this website for more than a dozen years, watching the fall of Corinthian Colleges (Everest College, Wyotech, and Heald), ITT Tech, Education Management Corporation (the Art Institutes and South University), the partial collapse of Apollo Group (University of Phoenix), Perdoceo (formerly Career Education Corporation), and Laureate International, and the transformation of Kaplan University to Purdue University Global and Bridgepoint Education (Ashford University) to University of Arizona Global.

As the College Meltdown has advanced, we have also observed a number of private schools collapse and public colleges and universities struggle. As enrollments continue to drop, we can expect more layoffs to occur and for education related businesses to struggle more.

The contents of this article are updated periodically, to illustrate trends in the College Meltdown. The most recent update was published October 29, 2024. 2U, the online program manager for elite university certificates has been the poster child in 2024, but there are many other companies and institutions in peril.

2U and edX

Adtalem Global Education

Albright College

Baldwin-Wallace University

Barnes and Noble College Booksellers

Cengage

Chegg

Concordia University, Ann Arbor

Coursera

Delta State University

DeVry University

Emerson College

Gwynedd-Mercy University

Keystone College

Maximus

National American University

Navient

Northern Illinois University

Penn State University

Perdoceo

Portland State University

Saint Cloud State University

Sallie Mae

Southern New Hampshire University

Tennessee State University

Udemy

University of Arizona

University of Maryland Global

University of New Orleans

University of North Carolina, Asheville

University of Phoenix

University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee

Walden University

Western Illinois University

Western Washington University

West Virginia University

Wittenberg University

Wednesday, September 18, 2024

Have Revenues Peaked For US Public Higher Education?

Student higher education enrollment has been headed in a downward trajectory for about 14 years. So, at some point we should have expected revenues to drop. This revenue decline, according to the US Department of Education statistics, finally happened in 2022, the last year reported.

But until ED updates higher ed revenue numbers, we won't know if we are seeing a statistical blip or something bigger and more long-term. These are numbers that some in the higher ed business may deny, hide, or rationalize for years to come.

Alabama, Michigan, Missouri, Texas, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia, and Wyoming had similar looking revenue drops in 2022. States with years of consistent declining enrollment, and there are many of them, are difficult to assess without more data. Some states, like Pennsylvania, have long flat line revenue trajectories that show obvious trends of stagnation. States with growing populations (aside from Texas) appear to have upward revenue trends.

Did federal money received during the Covid crisis artificially lift revenues, leading to an eventual short-term correction, or is there something more to look at? Saying it's a short-term correction would be a simple answer that higher ed industry proponents could use on the front stage, whether or not it's completely true. But it may be too simple.

In the future, we will drill down into these numbers and examine revenues in subsets of public higher education, to include community colleges, HBCUs and other minority serving institutions, state universities, and flagship universities in various regions of the US. Private schools (which we will discuss later) may be in a deeper revenue decline. There are few apparent patterns, other than that the rich have gotten richer and the poor poorer (this too we will discuss in another article).

If higher education revenues continue to decline, as they appear to be doing for 2024-2025, what will we see on the ground level? Will there be budget cuts and layoffs? The California State University System is already bracing for a $1 Billion shortfall, and they are not alone.

What happens with higher education revenues as the enrollment cliff approaches and states are considering higher education budget cuts? What happens to schools that rely mostly on tuition and fees with few other sources of revenues? Should institutions expect to receive more federal funds again in the next (inevitable) economic downturn?

Higher Education Inquirer