2U-edX crash exposes the latest wave of edugrift

2U, a Lanham, Maryland-based edtech company and parent company edX, is facing layoffs of an estimated 200 to 400 workers--a significant number for a company that only employs a few thousand--amid more rumors that the company is for sale. While the pain of their firings may be consequential for those who are experiencing it, the pain of those the company has damaged, mostly striving middle-class consumers and their families, may be worse.  

2U's problems are not new. The Higher Education Inquirer first reported on the beginning of company's meltdown in October 2019.  In July 2022, 2U announced layoffs as it changed its business model (again) and the US Department of Education scrutinized the company's grad school offerings.

2U began in 2008 as an online program manager (OPM), one of a few companies offering edtech services that required large amounts of capital and labor costs. They expanded through the acquisition of other edtech firms, Trilogy Education Services (2019) and edX (2021).  edX is an education platform that was created by Harvard and MIT as a massive open online course (MOOC) platform, but as part of 2U now concentrates on selling a number of elite and brand name tech bootcamps.

In 2022 and 2023, the Wall Street Journal (Lisa Bannon), Chronicle of Higher Education (Mike Vasquez), and USA Today (Chris Quintana) investigated 2U after a few US senators sounded the alarm about consumers being fleeced by 2U and other OPMs. 

With 2U's reputation in shambles and layoffs ahead, the parent company wrapped itself around the more respectable edX brand. Bjju's, an Indian edtech firm, was said to be looking at 2U or Chegg as a possible acquisition (Byju's is now facing its own problems).  

Concentrating on growth for years, then acquisition, then consolidation and rebranding, 2U has never generated an annual profit--and that trend doesn't appear to be changing. 

Earlier this year we listed 2U, Chegg, Coursera, and Guild Education as part of the EdTech Meltdown. 

Unlike the prior wave of for-profit college failures of Corinthian Colleges, ITT Tech, Education Management Corporation, and others that hurt working-class student debtors, 2U has collaborated with elite universities, targeting mostly middle-class folks for advanced degrees and certificates with elite brand names such as USC and UC Berkeley. Credentials that frequently are not worth the debt. Credentials that often did not lead to better paying jobs. Credentials that burden (and sometimes crush) consumers financially with private loans from Sallie Mae and others.

edX's website advertises coding, data analytics, cybersecurity, and AI bootcamps from a number of name brands: Ohio State University, Columbia University, University of Texas, Harvard University, Michigan State University, University of Denver, Southern Methodist University, University of Minnesota, University of Central Florida, Arizona State University, Northwestern University, Rice University, the University of North Carolina, and UC-Irvine.   

• Ohio State University AI Bootcamp $11,745
  
• University of Texas Coding Bootcamp $12,495
• Berkeley Extension Coding Bootcamp $13,495
• University of Pennsylvania Cybersecurity Bootcamp $13,995
  
• Columbia University Data Analytics Bootcamp $14,745 

It's not clear how well managed the programs are and how much these schools are involved in instruction and career guidance.  However, edX claims that with their bootcamp certificates, graduates will "gain  access to more than 260 employers--including half of the Fortune 100--seeking skilled bootcamp graduates." 

While the targets of for-profit colleges and 2U may have been different, their approaches were similar: sell a dream to consumers that often does not materialize. Spend tens of millions on targeted (and sometimes misleading) advertising and enrollment. Keep the confidence game going as long as it will last. But that may not be much longer.

In April 2023, 2U filed a lawsuit against the US Department of Education to avoid further government oversight. A familiar defensive strategy in the for-profit college business.

There is much we don't know about how significant the damage has been to those who bought the 2U story and spent tens of thousands on elite degrees and certificates, but it must be significant. Most US families do not have that kind of money to spend on something that doesn't result in financial gains.  

Recent reviews of edX on TrustPilot have been scathing. And social media have been brutal on 2U, Trilogy, and EdX. Reddit, for example, has posts like "The dirty truth about edX/Trilogy Boot Camps." In a more recent post about edX, there was a flurry of negative reviews.

In 2016, we wrote "When college choice is a fraud." At that time we were focusing on the tough choices that working-class people have deciding between their local community college or a for-profit career school. Little did we know that the education business was already moving its way up the food chain and that edtech companies like 2U would be engaging in the latest form of edugrift. 

Related link:

2U Virus Expands College Meltdown to Elite Universities (2019)

Buyer Beware: Servicemembers, Veterans, and Families Need to Be On Guard with College and Career Choices (2021)

College Meltdown 2.1 (2022)

EdTech Meltdown (2023)  

Erica Gallagher Speaks Out About 2U's Shady Practices at Department of Education Virtual Listening Meeting (2023)

"Edugrift" by J.D. Suenram (2020)

When college choice is a fraud (2016)

College Meltdown at a Turning Point

Dahn Shaulis

dahnshaulis@gmail.com

[Image above: Turning Point USA, a neoconservative student group, has grown to more than 1100 high school and college chapters since its founding in 2012.]

The College Meltdown has been developing for decades. But now, it is at a turning point as the Trump Administration enters office.  Most likely, American colleges are headed toward more racial and ethnic tension, less transparency, and more corruption.  And the Trump Administration's solutions, which include privatization and deregulation, may not only accelerate the College Meltdown, their "hands off" approach to civil rights may increase conflicts on campus.

Donald Trump's selection of Betsy Devos and Jeff Sessions as US Secretary of Education and Attorney General have already sent a loud statement to those who research and analyze organizational effectiveness and institutional corruption in education.

The loud statement is that citizens should keep an eye out for even more discrimination, inequality, and fraud in K-12 education and higher education. Non-Christians and "others" with limited financial resources should be particularly concerned. But don't expect to get much information from the corporate controlled media--it would take too much work and it wouldn't be profitable.

For those interested in how education policy plays out over the next four years, we'll also need to know who will lead the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, Federal Trade Commission, Securities and Exchange Commission, Federal Communications Commission, and how much those agencies will receive in funding for oversight of the US education industry.

Lack of oversight will accelerate opportunities for cronyism, nepotism, theft, lack of transparency, academic cheating, and intellectual dishonesty at the state and local levels

We also expect this increase in wrongdoing and poor decisions to be met with limited resistance and highly framed media attention.

Over the last two decades, tens of billions of dollars have already poured into charter schools despite lack of evidence about their effectiveness. Charter school enrollment has risen from about 300,000 in 1999 to about 2.5 million children in 2015 (about 5% of all school children).

Government-fed media stories may show structural failure that has been existent for generations and corruption that has cropped up in the age of increasing school choice. But ideological perspectives and power will influence which sides get the most attention, the quantity and quality of background information provided, and which stories (if any) gain the most traction.

"School choice," "empowerment," "opportunity," "religious freedom," "union corruption," "failing schools," "local control," "merit pay," "vouchers,"   "political correctness," "safe spaces," and "micro-aggressions" will be terms widely used to frame stories about US education.

For every action by all of these educational players, there will be a set of reactions from multiple sides. Vested interests include banks, private equity, hedge funds, philanthropies and foundations, for-profit and non-profit education and educational services companies, political parties, teachers union leaders, marketing and advertising companies, construction unions, pension funds, lobbying firms, think tanks, public relations businesses, and media outlets.

   Liberals may secretly like vouchers, so their children can get tuition breaks for private school attendance, or chances to get out of dangerous or failing public schools.   

Much of the action will also be at the state and local level and may not be reported by major news outlets.

The Libertarian Cato Institute has created a public schooling "battle ground" map about various neoconservative conservative social issues that are being fought across the country.

Outside players such as student debt groups, adjunct professors, and teacher resistance groups will also be involved, but will likely be marginalized or silenced.

We cannot predict what will happen exactly, but power, influence, and organizational effectiveness will be large determiners of what unfolds. And deals between power players behind the scenes may be vastly different than what is presented in the media.

• Look for changes in charter school tax credits (including New Markets Tax Credits), and other incentives as well as IPOs in the education business.
• Corporate and private capital flows to K-12 education may follow federal deregulation and block grants. This could result in irrational exuberance at the state and local levels. 

Some people will profit from the direction the nation's educational policy is going. But a larger number will suffer. We don't expect society as a whole to understand the consequences for quite some time. 

• Parents with high hopes will place their children in lotteries for high-demand charter schools. But most will be disappointed.
• About 0.5% of American children are currently enrolled in online charter schools. But this number could expand with deregulation, even if their educational value is in question.

While we construct this article, we suggest that you read three of our previous reports.

• When college choice is a fraud
• The college meltdown is painfully obvious
• Education is a racket

We invite feedback and opinions from all sides with interests in the education business and will respond to every comment we receive. Our email is dahneshaulis@gmail.com

US Department of Education Fails to Recognize College Meltdown

The Department of Education's predictions about college enrollment may overestimate the number of students in 2023 by 5-7 million.  


At what point will President Donald Trump's Department of Education realize that US higher education is facing dramatic losses in enrollment, and that their rosy projections are so wrong?

According to the National Student Clearinghouse, higher education enrollment has declined by 2.4 million students since 2010-2011. And the greatest losses have come from community colleges, which have experienced a 1.6 million student decline.

The US Department of Education, however, projects a consistent upward trend in enrollment despite acknowledging consistent losses from 2011 to 2015.  

Optimistic analysts suggest that the enrollment declines are the result of an improved economy, where jobs are more prevalent. But this pollyanna analysis belies the underlying problems in higher education and the greater economy that I have been chronicling on LinkedIn and College Meltdown.

Check out the 40 hardest hit US public 2-year institutions and you will see a pattern of government austerity, localized depressions, increasing inequality and an eroding K-12 pipeline.

Now, more than 15 indicators of the college meltdown have hit yellow or red lights. Revenues, the only green light in my analysis, appear to be in decline. Increasing student loan interest rates and reductions in need based funding may also accelerate the meltdown faster than my original models.

While elite colleges and brand name state universities continue to do well, for-profit colleges, community colleges, small private rural colleges, second-tier state colleges and HBCUs face major headwinds.

To make matters worse, public opinion about colleges has been worsening, especially among Republicans and the white working class. Whether this has already affected enrollment numbers has not been thoroughly investigated.

Inside Higher Education was bold enough to post a piece titled "What Happens If Higher Ed Collapses." But how many people read Inside Higher Education?

Potential political and cultural clashes this fall on college campuses may also worsen public opinion.

There are some positive developments happening, such as free community college in Oregon, Tennessee, New York, and Rhode Island, but this is not enough to remedy the destructive developments of defunding, deregulation, and privatization proposed by the Trump Administration.

The Layoff.com: Observations of College Meltdown in Real Time (Updated September 29, 2024)

The Layoff.com is a "simple discussion board" for workers who would like to learn more about the rumors or possibility of job cuts in their organization. It's also been helpful for us to understand what has been happening behind the scenes in the US Higher Education business. 

 

We have been observing and participating on this website for more than a dozen years, watching the fall of Corinthian Colleges (Everest College, Wyotech, and Heald), ITT Tech, Education Management Corporation (the Art Institutes and South University), the partial collapse of Apollo Group (University of Phoenix), Perdoceo (formerly Career Education Corporation), and Laureate International, and the transformation of Kaplan University to Purdue University Global and Bridgepoint Education (Ashford University) to University of Arizona Global.   

As the College Meltdown has advanced, we have also observed a number of private schools collapse and public colleges and universities struggle. As enrollments continue to drop, we can expect more layoffs to occur and for education related businesses to struggle more.  

 

The contents of this article are updated periodically, to illustrate trends in the College Meltdown.  The most recent update was published September 29, 2024.  2U, the online program manager for elite university certificates has been the poster child in 2024, but there are many other companies and institutions in peril.  

 

2U and edX 

 

Adtalem Global Education  

 

Albright College

Barnes and Noble College Booksellers

 

Cengage

Chegg

 

Concordia University, Ann Arbor

Coursera

 

Delta State University 

 

DeVry University 

 

Emerson College 

 

Gwynedd-Mercy University 

 

Keystone College  

 

Maximus 

 

National American University 

 

Navient 

 

Northern Illinois University 

 

Penn State University  

 

Perdoceo   

 

Saint Cloud State University 

 

Sallie Mae  

 

Udemy 

University of Arizona 

University of Maryland Global 

 

University of New Orleans 

 

University of North Carolina, Asheville

 

University of Phoenix 

 

University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee 

 

Walden University 

 

Western Illinois University   

West Virginia University 

 

Wittenberg University 

EdTech Meltdown

The Silicon Valley tech downturn has been creating reverberations in other parts of the economy and in other areas of the US.

Edtech, a small subset of the tech industry that overlaps with higher education, is facing major headwinds as skepticism about higher education and the economy grows.  Even two industry insiders, Noodle CEO John Katzman and Kaplan executive Brandon Busteed have been critical of the short-term thinking and questionable outcomes of edtech. Katzman has called some companies in the space "more adtech than edtech," implying that some do little more than marketing and advertising for colleges and universities.     

Ultimately, it's US consumers who are feeling the greatest pain as participants in online education--a mode of instruction that for millions of people may have more risks than benefits--within an increasingly dysfunctional economy that produces expensive education and fewer good jobs.   

Significant problems that were observed in large subprime colleges like University of Phoenix, Corinthian Colleges, ITT Tech, DeVry University, Colorado Tech, and the Art Institutes more than a dozen years ago have resurfaced in edtech.  And other problems unique to edtech have emerged. 

Chegg is an edtech company based in Santa Clara, California, and provides homework help, online tutoring, and other student services.  The company's value grew more than 300 percent in 2020, during the Covid pandemic, but has faced headwinds for the last two years. This includes allegations that  Chegg enables students to cheat on homework and other assignments. Derek Newton has chronicled this problem in the substack The Cheat Sheet.

 

[Chegg shares grew in 2020 during the Covid pandemic. Source: Seeking Alpha] 

 

Coursera is a publicly traded MOOC based in Mountain View California.  Shares started trading in April 2021.  The company has under-performed as a profit making enterprise. Massive Open Online Courses were once seen as a wave of the future in adult education but their popularity has waned. 

 

[Coursera has underperformed since its IPO in April 2021.  Source: Seeking Alpha]

2U (based in Lanham, MD) and Guild Education (based in Denver) and are two edtech companies based outside of Silicon Valley. 

2U is a publicly traded Online Program Manager (OPM).  The company services major universities such as the University of Southern California and University of North Carolina with support for some of their online degree programs. 2U has received an enormous amount of funding from Cathie Wood, a major Silicon Valley investor, and has continued to receive support despite a long record of financial losses.  

Some 2U investors have grown tired of persistent losses--and it has shown in the declining share price. The company also faces increased scrutiny in DC for recruiting consumers unable to recoup the cost of education for high-priced masters degrees in areas such as social work.  2U acquired edX, the Harvard-MIT MOOC in 2021 and its profitability remains to be seen.  

In 2023, 2U sued the US Department of Education for attempting to require more transparency between OPMs and their clients.  This strategy is similar to the defensive strategy that subprime colleges have used to stop gainful employment regulations, and more recently, borrower defense to repayment rules.  

 

 [2U shares have dropped more than 90 percent over the last 5 years. Source: Seeking Alpha]

Guild Education is a privately held corporation that grew to an estimated $4.4B evaluation in a few years. Guild serves businesses by administering online education benefits for large corporations such as Walmart, Target, and Macy's.  While its work may help companies with their bottom line, they appear to do little for their workers. 

At least ten of Guild's investors are based in Silicon Valley, including Silicon Valley Bank and venture capital firms in San Francisco, Palo Alto, and Menlo Park, California. Valuations.fyi reports Guild's estimated value at $1.3B, a 70 percent drop from its peak in June 2022. 

 

[Image above: Guild's valuation in Billions from valuations.fyi]

 

The Higher Education Inquirer will continue to observe changes in edtech as the College Meltdown advances.  

A ‘rigged’ economy and skepticism about college (Paul Fain, Open Campus)

How University of Phoenix Failed. It's a Long Story. But It's Important for the Future of Higher Education. 

The Cheat Sheet (Derek Newton)

2U Virus Expands College Meltdown to Elite Universities 

Erica Gallagher Speaks Out About 2U's Shady Practices at Department of Education Virtual Listening Meeting

Borrower Defense Claims Surpass 750,000. Consumers Empowered. Subprime Colleges and Programs Threatened.

Guild Education: Enablers of Anti-Union Corporations and Subprime College Programs 

College Meltdown 2.0 

The Growth of "RoboColleges" and "Robostudents"

The American Dream is Over (Gary Roth) 

What happens to the American Dream during the College Meltdown?

American cultural outlets are slowly recognizing just how unequal society has become.  Traditional images of the American Dream and the values of meritocracy are being challenged by more critical discussions about a dangerously unequal society, including the increasingly corrupt and caste-like nature of  higher education.  The following quotes highlight this slow change in consciousness:

"...Public universities and colleges no longer offer the same degree of opportunity they provided to low and moderate income Americans as recently as a generation ago (Dr. Suzanne Mettler in "Degrees of Inequality").

"...Mergers are a hot topic for all kinds of schools, regardless of race and mission. They are presented by legislators as a way to save taxpayer money, strengthen research and educational opportunities, and to increase visibility in a hyper-competitive rush for student enrollment. But beneath the surface, it is part of a far more dangerous plan to divide the haves and have nots..." (Jarret L. Carter, HBCU Digest).

36% of colleges with endowments under $25 million are spending more than 5% per year from their endowment. It's unsustainable. (Dr. Robert Kelchen, Seton Hall University)

"If current trends continue over the next few decades, most state university systems would soon lose all funding from their states....In 2025 Colorado would become the first state to allocate zero funding to higher ed; Iowa would follow in 2029, then Michigan (2030), then Arizona (2032).  Most states wouldn't appropriate any university funding by 2050." (Alia Wong, The Atlantic)   

"You just have to walk through the Yale campus to see what money will buy you, which is a country club, right?...But we have to look at this in the big picture: There are tons and tons of other students at other colleges who are carrying enormous debt loads through their 20s and even into their 30s because school has gotten so expensive." (Malcolm Gladwell, NPR's Weekend Edition)

"...with the higher education industry growing faster than nearly any other industry in the world, we can probably expect its corruption and cronyism to grow just as fast." (Jesse Nickles, College Times)

There is also a growing body of literature critical of US higher education and specifically its institutional financing, service delivery (including the exploitation of adjuncts), student access, student outcomes, and accreditation.

The US college meltdown is deeper than most critics know.   How many people are examining Student Loan Asset-Backed Securities (SLABS) and higher education construction bonds?   

How many citizens really know how their local university and college endowments are getting consistent double digit returns?  Has your school received a valid stress test (NACUBO, 2015)?   

Powerful critics such as Bain Capital (Denneen & Dretler, 2012) and the New America Fund (Selingo, et al, 2013) argue that colleges are spending beyond their means, using outmoded teaching methods, becoming less accessible to students and their families, and refusing to be accountable for student graduation and default rates and “gainful employment” numbers.

Other sources have called the US higher education system's ancillary student loan businesses and accrediting agencies as either criminal or immoral.   For decades now, the student loan industry has been a racket: a scheme between corporations and government resulting in debt peonage for millions of working Americans.   

These harsh judgments are coming at at time of increasing government austerity towards higher education and college tuition costs that are out of reach for many students and their families.

While some may invite the US college crash as a form of “creative destruction” (Johnson, 2014, Economist, 2014), working families are discovering that higher education is an expensive if not risky proposition, sewing “seeds of discontent” among students as well as teachers (Frey, 2013, Chomsky, 2014, Mettler 2014, Lawler, 2015).

Knowing the perils that colleges, students, and families face, this briefing is a starting point to

• Identify whether your school is “at risk” (stress testing)
• Identify where changes can be made, and
• Discuss the importance of being personally and socially involved in making changes

Truthfully, most major "elite" schools are growing in power in wealth.  But this is education for the few.  My purpose here is to educate and agitate people about the college meltdown which is now underway at for-profit colleges, community colleges, Historically Black Colleges and Universities (HBCUs), tribal colleges, schools with endowments below $50 million, and academic programs, such as law schools, at public colleges and universities facing state budget issues.

"For decades, bad actors in this (for-profit) industry have engaged in awful abuses, and for five years we’ve seen steady revelations of such misdeeds, including blatant deceptions by for-profit colleges to students and government overseers." (David Halperin)

"After reviewing the data compiled by several researchers...community colleges are pretty much a mess.  They get far too few of their students on the road to good jobs or four-year college degrees.   Many of their classes are poorly taught.  many of their programs are poorly organized.  Even their best effort are poorly funded."  (Jay Matthews, Washington Post)

"The problem (with community colleges) isn't tuition.  It's guidance and teaching.  Students are turned off not by the cost of community college but the frustrating entrance standards and classes that do not take them in the directions they want to go.  They are given little assistance in navigating the confusing requirements." (Jay Matthews) 

According to Johnny C. Taylor, president & CEO of the Thurgood Marshall College Fund, 50 to 60 percent of HBCUs don’t have a long-term optimistic outlook and about 10 percent are in imminent trouble.

"HBCU dorms have fallen into serious disrepair. Classrooms are in need of updating, and academic programs have suffered. Some schools have had to reduce faculty and staff. To be blunt, it’s the result of years and years of financial neglect. Some of these schools are in need of a major infusion of cash." (Lynette Holloway in The Root).

"These (tribal) colleges not only have high costs per graduate, but also weak educational results. The reasons are complex, but they start with the fact that many reservations are places of despair with levels of alcoholism, drug use, suicide, out-of-wedlock childbearing, violence, and unemployment that would shock the average American. Despondency rules."  (Tom Burnett)

"Law schools face real business challenges. Demand has declined every year since 2010—not just a little but by nearly 40 percent. The same number of law schools have 33,000 fewer prospective customers than they had five years ago."

Those who are sufficiently concerned need to read more about this issue and must follow up with their own homework and social action.

Elite private schools and State Flagship Universities that possess multi-billion dollar endowments, perpetual tax breaks, and renewing government grants promise to get wealthier and more powerful, leaving hundreds of poorer schools in peril.

 Institutions at Risk (“Stress Test”)

If higher education administrators, accrediting agencies, and teachers union officials refuse to be transparent and accountable to students and former students, alumni, adjuncts, and communities, the US college meltdown promises to be more cataclysmic.

Denneen and Dretler (2012) identify at least 13 metrics to identify whether your school is in financial trouble. If your school is not an elite private or public university with a large endowment, you might be at risk if your school is experiencing:

1. Falling admissions
2. Median salaries of graduates are flat
3. Reductions in funding
4. Taking on more debt
5. Tuition increases
6. Reducing faculty head count
7. Cut backs on financial aid

Best and Best (2014) argue that public universities that rely on out-of-state and international students may also be taking on risk that is not readily apparent.

Where to Make Changes
Daneen and Dretler (2012) outline four major areas to make changes.

1. Developing a clear strategy focused on the core of the institution (places that clearly add value)
2. Reducing support and administrative costs (fragmentation, redundancy, unneeded hierarchy, need to outsource some functions—caution reducing instruction costs)
3. Freeing up capital in non-core assets (real estate, physical assets, intellectual property)
4. Strategically investing on innovative models (flexibility for students)

Selingo, et al (2013) mention similar strategies and add several more options in reforming colleges, including:

• Stronger partnerships with community colleges
• Online offerings, hybrid courses
• Data driven student advising system
• More flexible and effective learning systems (online tutorials more effective than lecturing, personalized systems)
• Targeted financial aid
• Peer tutors and supplemental instruction
• Forging partnerships with business and government
• Make transferability more accessible
• Performance based funding

Exemplars of Innovation
No one can tell a community and its colleges what they must do to save resources and generate long-term resources. But there are exemplars of schools doing the right thing for their communities and their student bodies.

Coops are innovative partnerships that allow students to gain work experience before graduating. While coops have been an integral part of wealthy schools such as Drexel University, they can also be used to provide people with needed skills to serve a community. In another briefing, I highlight the growth and success of training at Working Class Accupuncture.

In Rockville, Maryland, nine public colleges and universities are housed in one campus--called the Universities at Shady Grove.  The program began 16 years ago  to "produce an educated workforce and encourage college completion among populations that traditionally struggle to get their ­degrees."

Innovative projects may require some pain, but may lead to even stronger and more mindful and sustainable programs.

Spelman College, for example, saved money by removing interscholastic sports, but replaced them with wellness programs that are an incubator for a "wellness revolution."

Social Involvement
Getting institutions to cut administrative fat, reduce cronyism and “dead wood”, and become more innovative will often result in resistance, even as other schools become more innovatative (Lederman, 2013). According to Daneen and Drettler (2012), in order for change to occur, an institution must

• Bring in key stakeholders to make needed change
• Acknowledge that change is necessary throughout the institution
• Address not only cost cutting, but adding value (e.g. consolidation can improve efficiency)
• Be clear about roles and accountability (functional accountability)

Conclusions
People in the US are living in times of increasing government austerity and declining percentages of traditional college-age students. These are political and social realities that are not going away soon. These realities make it vital that students, families, teachers, educational support staff, administrators, business people, taxpayers, alumni, and community members be actively involved in making colleges accessible, accountable, and responsive to society.

Strategic plans require informed input from an array of stakeholders who must be willing to sacrifice and to innovate. Without this, communities should be prepared for their schools to fail financially. Colleges should pay attention to their core missions, be wary of fads, and be able to adapt as their communities and their economies change. I hope that some of the ideas have prompted readers to think about what they can do to promote change in their colleges.

If you are not a member of an elite institution, how will your local school or alma mater listen and respond? Will they keep their heads buried in the sand, or will all stakeholders work together to be more socially responsive and responsible? If administrators and political leaders are unwilling to offer substantive changes, will students, teachers, and communities take a much larger and more active role in governing institutions, as they appear to be starting to do?

Epilogue: A Sincere Effort from Everyone
There is no shortage of knowledge about what works in US higher education. However, politics and power often get in the way of change (Habley, Bloom & Robbins, 2012, Mettler, 2014).

Those in power hoping to keep critics at bay by offering stakeholders a voice--but not actually considering any of their substantive or "radical" ideas--put themselves and their institutions and communities in peril (Hogan, 2003). It may give breathing room for those on the way out, but it doesn't ensure that the institution can survive for the longer run.

Let's get real. Political officials, regents, board members, and administrators know about lucrative and shady business deals, crony administrative positions, and high-priced pet projects. Teachers and teachers unions know about boring, uncaring, and unprofessional teachers who should be fired. Students know about ill-prepared disinterested peers and those who are cheating their way through school. Citizens know about the lack of access for particular people in their neighborhood and the maldistribution of resources. But it takes courage (and outstanding organization) to get everyone working, and struggling together, before a college fails in its mission.

While those with power may argue that others are at fault, they cannot disregard their own duties to facilitate the education and betterment of their communities.

[First edition posted as "The US College Meltdown," April 13, 2015.]

     

Academic Capitalism and the next phase of the College Meltdown (updated January 26, 2022)

It appears we have entered a new phase of Academic Capitalism and the College Meltdown. The previous phase involved College Mania! and the growth of the "educated underclass" (including gig workers, adjuncts and postdocs), Wall Street over-speculation, the divestment of corporations from employee benefits, and the rise and fall of for-profit colleges: Corinthian Colleges, ITT Tech, Education Management Corporation, Apollo Group, Education Corporation of America, and Laureate Education.  

Enrollment at proprietary schools is down about 40 percent from its peak in 2010 and higher education enrollment has dropped every year for the last decade.  In absolute numbers, community colleges have taken the largest hit.  Regional public universities have also experienced large enrollment declines.

At other schools, student aid has shifted from "needs based" to "merit based" making college choice for low- and moderate income families an even riskier choice. 

Student loan debt has crippled millions of working families, but neoliberal experts at Goldman Sachs and the Federal Reserve do not see a significant problem. 

According to the Federal Reserve, the student debt problem is ameliorated by the decline in births to people of lower socio-economic status.  The FED has also consistently reported that the debt is not a huge drag on the economy (less than 0.05 percent per year). Those developments, along with an anemic but growing student debt movement, have meant that the chance for progressive and meaningful change is limited under the Biden administration, but possible in the long run.  

This new phase of the College Meltdown has strong roots in the 1980s and involves the continued growth of the educated underclass (including elite overproduction in higher education) and more bulls*t jobs, the privatization of public higher education, the proliferation and consolidation of online program managers (OPMs) working for name brand and lesser known schools, non-profit subprime colleges, robocolleges, continued grade inflation, and the fall of the US federal student loan program. In 2020 and 2021, higher education also received three massive federal bailouts.  

Larger developments include the resurgence of authoritarianism, the hollowing out of America, and the global climate change crisis.  Despite these glaring existential problems, a looming college enrollment cliff in 2026, and growing dismay by working families, irrational exuberance and false optimism continues among most college business officers and middle-class consumers.  

Will austerity and excesses in the system lead to even more dramatic failures? Will the states and federal government ask for more transparency and accountability of the government funds that keep the system afloat?

What should we be observing in this new phase:  

1. The growth (and power) of the "educated underclass"

2. The effects of student loan debt on working families and social institutions (including religion and the economy) 

3. The state of the student loan forgiveness movement and popular opinion about student loan forgiveness

4. The health of the US Department of Education's Student Loan Portfolio

5. The growth of Online Program Managers

6. The degree that public universities are serving their citizens

7. The amount of money spent on marketing and advertising in higher education

8. Analyses of the FED, big banks, and rating agencies about the K-12 pipeline, higher education, student loan debt, and the growth of the educated underclass 

9. Local, state, and federal responses to "savage inequalities" in the K-12 pipeline, student loan debt, and the growth of the "educated underclass"

10. The rise of authoritarianism/neofascism in US education and the US as a whole  (e.g. mass surveillance, anti-intellectualism, hate crimes)

11. In deference to Bryan Alexander and his upcoming book "Universities on Fire" I must include global climate change as a phenomenon that must be observed and dealt with.  Failure to address this existential problem makes the other issues irrelevant.  

References

• Lawsuit alleges top colleges illegally collude to limit financial aid (Ivana Saric, Axios)
• USC Pushed a $115,000 Online Degree. Graduates Got Low Salaries, Huge Debts (Lisa Bannon and Andrea Fuller, WSJ)
• The Semi-Rich and Elite Overproduction (Matthew Stewart, Peter Turchin and Higher Ed)
• Student Debt From Private Lenders Hits All-Time High (Alexis Gravely, Inside Higher Education)
• Students Are Living In Hotels & Cars Due To Lack Of Campus Housing In California (Dantee Ramos)
• The Grade Inflation–College Completion Connection (Elizabeth Redden, Inside Higher Education)
• Low Literacy Levels Among U.S. Adults Could Be Costing The Economy $2.2 Trillion A Year (Forbes)
• Colleges See Best Gains in Decades Thanks to Private Investments (Janet Lorin, Bloomberg)
• Enrollment algorithms are contributing to the crises of higher education (Alex Engler, Brookings Institution)
• A Generation of American Men Give Up on College: ‘I Just Feel Lost (Douglas Belkin, WSJ)
• The Great Master’s-Degree Swindle (Kevin Carey, CHE)
• The Number of Colleges Continues to Shrink (Doug Lederman, Inside Higher Education)
• Pennsylvania system board votes to merge 6 institutions into 2 (Jeremy Bauer-Wolf, Higher Ed Dive)
• ‘Financially Hobbled for Life’: The Elite Master’s Degrees That Don’t Pay Off (Melissa Korn and Andrea Fuller, WSJ)
• Spring Numbers Show 'Dramatic' Drop In College Enrollment (Elissa Nadworny, NPR)
• States Step In To Stop Colleges Holding Transcripts Ransom For Unpaid Bills (Jon Marcus, NPR)
• Bond Boom Comes to America’s Colleges and Universities (Juliet Chung and Melissa Korn, WSJ)
• Colleges Could Lose $183 Billion During Pandemic (Emma Whitford, IHE)
• A Brutal Tally: Higher Ed Lost 650,000 Jobs Last Year (Dan Bauman, CHE)
• Tempering the Baby Bust Financial Hit (Phillip B. Levine, IHE)

This article was updated November 11, 2021 to include a link to elite overproduction in higher education and on January 26, 2022 to include a list of recent references.  

College Meltdown 2.2: Who’s Minding the Store?

The latest report by the Government Accountability Office (GAO) about wrongdoing by higher education online program managers (OPMs) felt disappointing to social justice advocates who watch the space and know the bad actors who were unnamed in the GAO document.  

US higher education has always been a racket, but its latest pursuits have gone untouched and even unmentioned.  GAO’s behavior, though, is no worse than the many other corporate enablers who are supposed to be minding government funds wasted –or worse yet—used to prey upon US working families. 

The US Department of Education has done little lately to safeguard consumers from predatory student loan servicers like Maximus and Navient, or subprime universities like Purdue University Global and University of Arizona Global, and hundreds of small players who offer marginal education leading to less than gainful employment.

The Department of Veterans Affairs has done little lately to protect veterans and their families from being ripped off by subprime schools.  At one time, VA was a leader in tracking GI Bill complaints and making them public, but transparency and accountability are far from what they were.

The US Department of Defense (DOD) has been asleep at the wheel with its distribution of DOD Tuition Assistance funds to subprime colleges.  Its complaint system is close to nonexistent. 

The US Department of Justice (DOJ) and US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) have done little to rein in bad actors in higher education, leaving the work to states attorneys general.  Hate crimes on campus have also been ignored.  In other cases, elite university endowments have received little notice despite eyebrow raising profits.  Student loan asset-backed securities are also below their radar. 

During the pandemic, The Department of Treasury has failed to adequately oversee funds issued to the Federal Reserve and the Small Business Administration funneled to subprime schools. 

The Federal Trade Commission (FTC), which had done an adequate job investigating predatory lead generators and marketing and advertising false claims has been hamstrung by a recent court decision and can no longer fine higher ed wrongdoers.   Predatory companies know this and will act accordingly—as criminals do when cops are not on the beat. 

What lack of oversight have you seen with federal agencies tasked to protect higher education consumers? 

Related link: College Meltdown 2.0

Related link: Maximus, Student Loan Debt, and the Poverty Industrial Complex

Related link: 2U Virus Expands College Meltdown to Elite Universities

Related link: DOD, VA Get Low Grades for Helping Vets Make College Choices

Related link:  Charlie Kirk's Turning Point Empire Takes Advantage of Failing Federal Agencies As Right-Wing Assault on Division I College Campuses Continues

Related link: The Colbeck Scandal (South University and the Art Institutes)

Related link: When does a New York college become an international EB-5 visa scam?

Related link: One Fascism or Two?: The Reemergence of "Fascism(s)" in US Higher Education

Coronavirus and the College Meltdown

If the student loan debt bubble blow ups in coming months, it will be because the US economy had been seriously compromised for decades. 

The College Meltdown continues in 2020. This phenomenon is deeper than the coronavirus, the temporary closing of campuses across the US, and the cancellation of NCAA basketball's March Madness. What we are seeing in the news should be a smaller entry in the History of American Higher Education compared to larger trends and social problems that preceded the pandemic.

College and university enrollment has been declining slowly but constantly since 2011, with for-profit colleges and community colleges taking the largest hits. And it follows larger demographic trends which include a half century of increasing inequality, including "savage inequalities" in the K-12 pipeline, crushing student loan debt, decreasing social mobility and the underemployment of college graduates, smaller families, and the hollowing out of America.

Spending on college is also an increasingly risky decision for working families.

[College enrollment continues to decline every year. This chart is already outdated. In Alaska, for example, enrollment dropped 37 percent from 2011 to 2019, New Mexico and Michigan dropped 33 and 24 percent. ]

A larger enrollment decline is projected for 2026, a ripple effect of the Great Recession of 2008. With fewer younger people to attend college, this "enrollment cliff" could amount to a 15 percent drop in a single year.

There are many parts to the current Coronavirus crisis and its effects on US higher education. But they all boil down to the Trump mantra (defund, deregulate, and privatize) and the opportunity for the elites to capitalize from the crisis, as they did during and after the Great Recession.

[Image below from Wikipedia. Higher education in the US has increasingly relied on for-profit mechanisms for growth and revenues. This includes privatized housing and services and for-profit Online Program Managers (OPMs).]

Higher education is a small but significant part of the US economy, which includes much larger sectors like Health Care and Finance. While the working class will not get bailed out, these sectors likely will, with the sudden crisis used as a rationalization. The crisis of crushing student loan debt and the much larger problems related to 50 years of growing inequality may be more disruptive in the long run, but these matters continue to be ignored.

Whether the next President is Donald Trump or Joe Biden, things could get worse for working families, unless there is mass resistance--right now I don't see that happening. For the moment, many young people are responding by living with family, not going to college, and delaying child bearing. Those who do get an education are also making economic sacrifices. Some, for example are selling their bodies as Sugar Babies to get through school.

Many state economies also look bleak in the near future. Not enough in revenues and increasing Medicaid costs make investments in education difficult to do without increasing taxes or state-level debt. And it's not likely that the wealthy will be willing to pay their fair share, unless they feel economically threatened. If that happens, rich companies and rich people can just move out of state or out of the country.

Higher Education and the Student Loan Mess

In October 2019, Trump Department of Education official Wayne Johnson resigned, recognizing that student loan debt mess was worse than anyone had imagined. US higher education enrollment is supposed to be countercyclical (improving when the economy drops) , but don't bet on it without government help.

Haven't heard any rumors in months, but it should also be interesting to see if President Trump tries to unload the $1.5T in federal loans to his banking friends using an executive order. McKinsey & Company have been tasked to determine the possibilities of such a maneuver, but there is radio silence on that front.

In the education sector, I'm watching student loan servicers and private lenders Sallie Mae (SLM), Navient (NAVI), and Nelnet (NNI) closely. Student Loan Asset-Backed Securities (also known as SLABS) are also worthy of scrutiny given the low rates of student loan repayment.

Newest Links

• Latest Coronavirus News (Inside Higher Education)
• Moody's lowers higher ed outlook to negative amid coronavirus crisis (Jeremy Bauer-Wolf, Education Dive)
• What Is a College Education in the Time of Coronavirus? (NY Times Opinion)
• Community Colleges and the Coronavirus (Madeline St. Amour, Inside Higher Education) 
• California AG sues Betsy DeVos for overturning Obama-era rule aimed at for-profit colleges (Aarthi Swaminathan, Yahoo Finance)
• Coronavirus and Admissions Fears (Scott Jaschick, Inside Higher Education)
• Already stretched universities now face huge endowment losses from market meltdown (PBS, Jon Marcus)
• Uncertain Fate for Support Staff (Lilah Burke, IHE)
• 41% of Recent Grads Work in Jobs Not Requiring a Degree (Inside Higher Education)
• College Students Losing SNAP Benefits (Inside Higher Education)
• New Jersey Passes Contingent Faculty Bill of Rights (The Adjunct Crisis)
• Many Nonprofit College Programs Would Fail Gainful Test (Inside Higher Education)
• The College Wealth Premium Has Collapsed (Annie Lowrey, The Atlantic)
• Trump DOJ Compels NACAC to Soften Ethics for College Admissions (Inside Higher Education)
• Student Debt Is Transforming the American Family (Hua Hsu, New Yorker)
• Community college enrollment down 25% nationally since 2011, Census Bureau estimates (Cleveland.com)
• Break Up the BA Cartel (Frederick M. Hess, National Review)
• Wealthy Students' Borrowing Spikes (Rick Seltzer, Inside Higher Education)
• Behind Closed Doors in Washington, Here’s What Colleges Fight For (Kevin Carey, NY Times)
• Preparing for the Great Enrollment Crash (Inside Higher Education)
• List of 946 Financial Ailing Colleges Kept Secret (Inside Higher Education)
• How Colleges Can Survive the Coming Enrollment Crash (Rob Jenkins, James G. Martin Center)
• Colleges, face up to the rocky financial reality (CNN opinion)
• Trump education official to resign and call for mass student loan forgiveness (Josh Mitchell, Wall Street Journal)
• Worst Colleges in America, By State
• Colleges Ill-prepared for the Future (Inside Higher Ed)
• Has the Chamber of Commerce Hijacked YOUR Education System? Engineering Students For A Low-Wage, Gig Economy (Wrench in the Gears)
• The Educated Underclass (Gary Roth)
• Sallie Mae execs tan at Maui retreat while student debt crisis tops $1.6 trillion (NBC News Investigates)
• Flagship Universities are Unaffordable to Most Citizens (IHEP)
• 99% Rejected For Student Loan Forgiveness - Again (Zack Friedman, Forbes)
• The other victims when colleges decline or close: their hometowns (Hechinger Report)
• HBCUs Plan Cuts After Congress Misses Funding Deadline (Inside Higher Education)
• Trump Administration Hires McKinsey to Evaluate Student-Loan Portfolio (Wall Street Journal)
• Campus Facilities Facing Debt Crisis and Staffing Cuts (Sightlines)
• TCF Analysis of 70+ University-OPM Contracts Reveals Increasing Risks to Students, Public Education
• DOWNFALL OF NCAA WOULD IMPROVE AMERICAN EDUCATION (Randall Collins)