How is higher education enrollment changing?
Today the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center published its first analysis of student numbers for fall 2024. This is important data, as ever, and I’ll dig into it with this post.
It’s a mixed bag. Total enrollment rose, but a key indicator fell.
One caution: this is the first such report for the semester,
representing just over one half of the Center’s respondents’ data.
They’ll revise this over the next few months.
The good news: total post-secondary enrollment rose 2.9% compared to
fall 2023, with undergrad numbers rising 3% and grad school up 2.1%.
The heart of this growth is to be found in community colleges, who are
using dual enrollment (teaching high school students) to rebuild their
classes for the third year in a row. For-profit colleges are also doing
very well, seeing their numbers up 5%.
The main degree growth is not from
graduate or undergrad degrees (not the BA, BS, MA, PhD, and so on), but
from undergrad certificate seekers (a 7.3% rise).
There are other positive findings.
The sophomore retention rate (the proportion of first-year students who
return for their second year) did better, as the drop out rate
decreased. Returning student numbers were higher. In terms of race,
all non-white populations enjoyed increased numbers: “Undergraduate and graduate enrollments for Hispanic, Black, Asian, and Multiracial students
are seeing strong growth this fall.” Historically black colleges and
universities (HBCUs) and Hispanic-serving institutions (HSIs) all saw
increases. In terms of economic class, there were more students from the
lowest economic quintile.
In terms of gender, there were no meaningful differences, as both male and female numbers rose at roughly the same amount.
Geographically, nearly all states enjoyed an increased in overall enrollment at the undergrad level:
At the graduate level things were still rosy, although more mixed:
Primarily online institutions (think Arizona State, Southern New
Hampshire, Western Governors, etc.) saw enrollment rise by more than 6%.
Yet with all of these bright spots, the Clearinghouse shared some bad news. First-year student enrollment
dropped 5% overall. This decline reversed gains made in 2023, taking
things back to 2022 levels, and was especially pronounced in public and
private four year institutions (-8.5% and -6.5%):
In terms of age, “an almost 6% drop in the number of 18-year-old freshmen (a proxy for those enrolling immediately after high school graduation) accounts for most of the decline.” In terms of economic class, this decline was especially true of state schools serving more Pell-eligible students, which saw drops of 10% and more.
Further, one negative sign of race
and enrollment involves the caucasian population: “Undergraduate White
students, on the other hand, continue to see enrollment declines (-0.6%).“ The Chronicle of Higher Ed generated this helpful and contrasting graphic:
I and others who attended a briefing asked Clearinghouse staff to
speculate on the decline. Vice president for research Doug Shapiro
thought multiple factors were in play: the FAFSA chaos, the attraction
of the job market (unemployment being low), fear of student debt. The
Supreme Court ruling against academic affirmative action might have
discouraged some minority students from applying, at least to elite
institutions.
What might we take away from this report?
I need to preface my remarks by reminding readers that enrollment
matters for two vital reasons. To the extent that the United States
wants more people to have more college study, the number of students who
actually pursue higher education indicates how successful we are in
reaching that goal. And since we’ve effectively privatized most of
higher education economics, student enrollment means essential revenue
for keeping college and university doors open.
First, the Clearinghouse report is very good news for community
colleges, who are enjoying growth after years of losses. Their strategy
of reaching into high schools is making up for their losses in the rest
of their communities. It’s also good for for-profits, who saw their
sector flattened during the Obama administration.
Second, certificates are in the lead. The Center’s director told me that
this sounds like a short-term trend, as the number of students pursuing
shorter-term credentials is continuing to grow. How many campuses will
be inspired to expand their own certificate offerings as a result,
sensing a growing market?
Third, there aren’t any clear signs of students responding to
abortion policies. That is, we might expect younger people (who tend to
be more liberal) and especially younger women to avoid states with
strict abortion bans, but the geographic data does not bear this out.
Fourth, in terms of how we think about higher education, the major
developments here focus on the parts of academia which don’t normally
get much attention or media buzz: for-profits, community colleges,
certificates, online learning. I don’t know if most academics in public
and non-profit higher ed, and most Democrats, will be happy to see
for-profits strengthen.
Fifth, this decline in first-year students could depress enrollments
for years to come. It might mean fewer sophomores next year, fewer
juniors the year after, and so on. Colleges will have to do heroic
feats to boost retention, and high schools ditto to expand graduation
and application, to nullify this issue.
Sixth, institutions which teach mostly online continue to grow. This
is a long-running trend and feels likely (to me) to keep building up.
Seventh, it’s good to see higher ed actually grow after more than a
decade of decline. We’re still nowhere near the numbers we enrolled in
2012’s peak and have a long way to go before reaching that. Meanwhile,
America’s total population has grown, thanks to immigration, so we have
farther still to go in reaching our peak proportion.
One last note: keep an eye out for updates to this data, as the
Clearinghouse gets more evidence from its affiliated institutions.
This article first appeared at BryanAlexander.org
