How much will global economic and political forces affect international enrollment in 2025?

Elite and brand name universities serve the world's elite. But how much will global economic and political forces affect US higher education in 2025? More than one million foreign students attend higher education institutions in the US, but those numbers could change. 

There are several ongoing developments that could affect the influx of international students in 2025. This includes problems with the political economy in Asia (China, South Korea) and in Europe (the UK, Germany, and France). 

Trade wars, which incoming President Trump has threatened, could also affect enrollment. And deportations of Muslim students, including those who have protested the war in the Middle East, could create a chilling effect on student in-migration. 

Indian students are already the largest group coming into the US and they serve as a major pipeline for the tech industry and medicine, and that is unlikely to change in the near future. 

 

(KTLA Video) International students at the University of Southern California are being urged to return to the US before the Trump Administration gains power. 

Tens Of Thousands Of Students Went Cycling At Night (CNN)

Under the new Trump presidency, can US student protestors learn from Chinese students?

Related links:

Student Protests in the Higher Education Inquirer

Methods of Student Nonviolent Resistance

Presidents’ Alliance Reaffirms Higher Education’s “Steadfast Commitment” to Immigrant, Refugee, and International Students

For Immediate Release: November 6, 2024
Contact: Michael Earls at michael@npagency.com

Washington D.C. – As the nation reflects on the results of yesterday’s election, the Presidents’ Alliance on Higher Education and Immigration reaffirms our steadfast commitment to undocumented, immigrant-origin, international, and refugee students, and policies that recognize their essential role in the future workforce and leadership of our country.

Miriam Feldblum, Executive Director of the Presidents’ Alliance, stated:

“A central mission of higher education is to educate and equip individuals from all backgrounds to unleash their talent and potential. That belief underscores our advocacy for policies and supports that provide opportunities for international students, refugees, and Dreamers with and without DACA. In a post-election environment of uncertainty and anxiety for many on our campuses, our commitment to students, staff, and faculty from around the world remains steadfast, as does our belief in their essential role in our nation’s economic vitality and competitiveness.”

Nancy Cantor, President of Hunter College at CUNY and Co-Chair of the Steering Committee of the Presidents’ Alliance, stated:

“The presence of diverse students, staff, and faculty from around the world enriches the learning experience, advances knowledge, spurs scientific and technological innovation, and brings fresh perspectives to our campuses, communities, and the nation. Together, we remain committed to advancing our shared vision of a welcoming, innovative, and thriving future—one that draws on the strengths and talents of every individual, regardless of background or immigration status.”

On November 15th at 2:00 p.m. EST, the Presidents’ Alliance will be hosting a virtual briefing, to discuss post-election priorities and prospects for higher education and immigration policy. To register for the briefing, please click here.

Below, find a collection of resources and information for campuses to support undocumented, refugee, and international students in this post-election period.

Resources Read the Presidents’ Alliance 1-page guide, Five Ways Campuses Can Support Non-Citizen Students and Employees Post-Election
Presidents’ Alliance Directory: Resources to Support DACA recipients, Undocumented Students, and Institutions of Higher Education
Higher Ed Immigration Portal directory: Beyond DACA: A Directory of Resources for Undocumented Students & Individuals
Community resources: find “Know Your Rights” resources from Informed Immigrant and ACLU and see Switchboard’s guide, “Safety and Security in Polarized Political Environments” Additional Upcoming Post-Election Webinars hosted by UC Immigrant Legal Services Center: Traveling While Undocumented (Friday, November 22, 2024)
Safety Planning for Immigrants (Friday, December 13, 2024)
 

The nonpartisan, nonprofit Presidents’ Alliance on Higher Education and Immigration brings college and university presidents and chancellors together on the immigration issues that impact higher education, our students, campuses, communities and nation. We work to support undocumented, international and refugee students, and advance forward-looking immigration policies and practices at the federal level, in our states, and across our college campuses. The Alliance is composed of 550+ college and university presidents and chancellors of public and private colleges and universities, enrolling over five million students in 42 states, D.C., and Puerto Rico.

Ambow's HybriU. Is any of this real?

Ambow Education is at it again, pumping up its stock with another edtech business deal. This time, they sent out a press release that a Singapore company called Inspiring Futures has reached a $1.3M deal for licensing Ambow's 3D learning platform HybriU. Shares of AMBO soared more than 200 percent on the news. In April, Ambow appeared at the ASU+GSV conference to pitch its latest technology. 

 

The Ambow Sales Pitch for HybriU 

"HybriU is currently the only available 5-in-1 total solution. It seamlessly integrates AI—empowering five key domains: teaching, learning, connectivity, recording, and management—along with lecture capture, immersive technology, and a comprehensive management platform designed specifically for the education sector. HybriU delivers a unified learning experience that transcends the boundaries of both online and offline education, bridges language and regional divides, and connects academia with industry."

"HybriU's cutting-edge 3D solution includes 3D signal capture, recording, transformation, and remote display capabilities. It supports broadcasting life-sized 3D projections of professors in remote classrooms via a 3D LED wall, enabling a highly immersive learning experience. Learners can engage in their native language while interacting with the 3D content, making the platform accessible and effective across diverse linguistic and regional boundaries."

But is any of this technology real? We know of no schools currently using HybriU.  And there are no video presentations available online. We have reached out to experts in edtech to evaluate Ambow's claims for the technology and will provide a follow up when we learn more. 

Inspiring Futures? 

Inspiring Futures, the Singapore company that made the deal with Ambow for licensing HibriU, was created four months ago and employs three people. Its headquarters is in an outlet mall. 

Ambow also operates out of a small space in Cupertino, California, after its move from the People's Republic of China. Ambow still owns and operates NewSchool, a real college in San Diego, California, that has been declining in enrollment.    

Universities (and Thousands of International Students) Gaming the Visa System

We are following a story first exposed by two Bloomberg journalists about universities that are taking unfair advantage of the US visa system. The program is called Day 1 CPT. 

The CPT (Curricular Practical Training) program has been around for decades, but has evolved over time to give foreigners the ability to work immediately in the US. The student visa system is managed by the Immigration and Custom Enforcement's Student and Exchange Visitor Program (SEVP). A 244 page list of the certified schools is here.

According to the Bloomberg article, "By exploiting a federal on-the-job-training rule, people from India, China and elsewhere can work full time while completing most classes online and showing up in person only a few times a year."

The article listed Harrisburg University of Science and Technology (Pennsylvania-Middle States), University of the Cumberlands (Kentucky-SACS), Trine University (Indiana, Michigan,Virginia-HLC), Campbellsville University (Kentucky, California, Illinois, Florida-SACS), Westcliff University (California-WSCUC), and New England College (New Hampshire-NECHE). All of these colleges and universities in the Bloomberg article are regionally accredited. 

Other Schools that Issue Day 1 CPT Visas

HEI has located a number of other schools that issue Day1 CPT visas: Sofia University (California), Saint Peter's University (New Jersey), McDaniel College (Maryland), Monroe College (New York), Sullivan University (Kentucky), National Louis University (Illinois, Florida), Dallas Baptist University (Texas), California Institute of Advanced Management (California), Tennessee Wesleyan University (Tennessee), Humphreys University (California), International Technical University (California), Ottawa University (Kansas, Arizona, Wisconsin),  Computer Systems Institute (Illinois, Massachusetts), St. Francis College (New York), University of Fairfax (Virginia), and American National University (Virginia).

The F-1 Student Visa System  

The US issues more than 400,000 F-1 student visas each year, but the number that are Day 1 CPT visas is unknown--because Day 1 CPT visas are not issued directly by the government. Instead, they are authorized by the Designated School Official (DSO) at the student's university. 

While the actual authorization for Day 1 CPT is typically handled by the Designated School Official (DSO) at the student's university, the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Service (USCIS) sets the overall guidelines and regulations governing the program.

The number of Day 1 CPT visas issued each year depends on the number of students enrolled in eligible programs at universities that offer Day 1 CPT and the number of those students who meet the eligibility criteria and apply for work authorization.  

For some, this gets an untold number of foreigners the opportunity to game the system: getting to work immediately in the US while waiting to win the visa lottery.  And when some win, they quit going to school.  

Larger Questions of Fairness and Justice

Bloomberg indicated that this legal (but questionable) visa scheme began in 2014, but did not mention whether the students' employers were complicit or actively involved in gaming the system. 

They also failed to mention the much larger issue of the federal government issuing so many F-1 student visas, while large numbers of American born students are denied access to state universities and private schools that receive federal funds. 

F-1 visa holders also compete with domestic students for good jobs after graduation, potentially leading to lower wages and reduced opportunities for U.S. citizens.

The K-12 Pipeline for Global Elites: Inequality and Injustice Start Here

The K-12 pipeline for global elites operates as a separate and often invisible track compared to the public system. Instead of merit and potential, this pipeline is characterized by privilege, resources, and a focus on gaining admission to prestigious universities. Here's a breakdown of its key features:

Early Investment:

• Elite Private Schools: Wealthy families from around the world enroll their children in elite boarding schools. These schools are known for smaller class sizes, rigorous academics, and experienced teachers. 

  Students include the children of elites from China (including Hong Kong), Taiwan, South Korea, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam, Russia, Uzbekistan, Ukraine, Canada, the United Kingdom, Germany, Australia, Brazil, and Venezuela. Room and board can exceed $60,000 a year. 

  Elite schools do offer scholarships to lesser folks, not out of charity, but because they provide value to the institutions. But these scholarships do not outweigh the immense privileges that the children of elites receive before, during, and after school. 
  

• Enrichment Activities: Extracurricular activities like sports, music, theater, and coding classes are actively encouraged. These activities not only enhance well-rounded development but also provide opportunities for leadership and awards, which can bolster college applications.

• Test Prep and College Counseling: Students receive extensive coaching for standardized tests like the SAT and ACT, maximizing their chances of achieving high scores. Professional college counselors guide them through the complex application process, including essay writing, recommendation letters, and strategic college selection.

Parental Involvement:

• High Expectations: Parents of elite students often set high academic expectations and provide a supportive environment conducive to learning. This includes access to educational resources, technology, and quiet study spaces. Working class parents may hold their children to high standards, but they may not have the time or resources.
  

• Networking and Alumni Connections: Elite parents may leverage their own professional networks and alumni connections to secure internships, research opportunities, or even preferential consideration from colleges and universities.  While working class folks have networks, such as religious organizations and labor unions, they cannot offer connections that elites have.
  

The Outcomes:

• Standardized Test Scores: Students on the elite track consistently achieve higher scores on standardized tests, increasing their competitiveness for admission to selective universities.
  

• College Admissions: These students are well-positioned for admission to prestigious universities, often securing spots at Ivy League institutions or other highly ranked schools. This opens doors to exclusive networks, prestigious internships, and faculty mentorship that can further propel their careers.

How Would Trump's Plans for Mass Deportations Affect US Higher Education?

 

Donald Trump and JD Vance promise to begin mass deportations in 2025 if they win the November 2024 US election. It's a populist idea that has a long history in the US. And it's understandable that many struggling Americans would favor a program that would eliminate from the competition those people who were not born in the US, and came here with or without documents. 

This America First plan would expel about 11 million men, women, and children, break up millions of families and an untold number of communities, and affect not just businesses but entire industries. Deportees would include those who have crossed the borders with Mexico and Canada. But it could also include hundreds of thousands of non-white workers who have had their visas expire for a number of reasons, including temporary unemployment.

Those folks who concerned about these mass deportations should take Trump and Vance's words seriously--and vote accordingly. Struggling citizens who believe they will get better work or have a better life as a result of Trump policies should also consider whether this is true--and also consider all the other structural reasons for their plight--and vote accordingly. Before November, everyone who is voting should also know about the potential effects of these policies for their communities, counties, states, regions, and the nation. 

The Heritage Foundation's 2025 Mandate for Leadership, makes this promise of mass deportations more than a pipe dream. Under a program this radical, we should also expect a backlash on and off college campuses. One that we hope would be nonviolent. Republicans such as Vance have already called professors and universities enemies of the state and of the People, and we should take them at their words.

Foreign relations under a second Trump Administration could also trigger mass surveillance and deportations of students from the People's Republic of China and other nations deemed as enemies. In 2024, Chinese students have already reported being interrogated and deported. 

Plans to deport legally documented persons labeled as enemies or radicals, such as those who protest the horrors in Palestine, or call for global climate action, are also a distinct possibility. 

A Trump-Vance Administration could also restrict named threats from entering and reentering the US, with help from the US Supreme Court, which they have done before. They could reinstitute the Trump "Muslim ban."

And we cannot rule out that a Trump Administration could require federal troops to use force, if necessary, to maintain order on college and university campuses.

Mass deportations of undocumented workers and foreign students would have several significant impacts on colleges and universities and the communities they serve. This includes:

1. Decreased enrollment and diversity: Many undocumented students and foreign students would be forced to leave, reducing overall enrollment numbers and campus diversity.

2. Loss of talent: Deportations would result in the loss of talented students and researchers, including those with college or graduate degrees, negatively impacting academic programs and research output.

3. Financial strain: Universities would lose tuition revenue from deported students, potentially leading to budget cuts and program reductions.

4. Workforce shortages: Higher education institutions rely on both undocumented and foreign workers in various roles. Their deportation would create staffing shortages across academic and support positions.

5. Research and innovation setbacks: The loss of foreign graduate students and researchers would hinder ongoing research projects and slow innovation in STEM fields and other areas.

6. Reduced global competitiveness: US universities may become less attractive to international students, potentially damaging their global rankings and competitiveness.

7. Economic impact on college towns: Many college towns rely on the economic contributions of international and undocumented students. Their removal would affect local businesses and housing markets.

8. Disruption of academic programs: Sudden deportations could disrupt ongoing classes, research projects, and academic collaborations.

9. Brain drain: The forced departure of educated immigrants and students could lead to a "brain drain," with talent and skills leaving the US higher education system.

10. Social and cultural impact: The loss of diverse perspectives from undocumented and international students would diminish the cultural richness and global understanding fostered on campuses.

11. Potential closure of specialized programs: Some niche academic programs that rely heavily on international student enrollment might face closure due to insufficient student numbers.

12. Increased administrative burden: Universities would face additional administrative challenges in complying with and managing the consequences of mass deportation policies.

These impacts highlight the significant role that undocumented workers and foreign students play in the US higher education system, and the potential disruptions that mass deportations could cause across academic, economic, and social dimensions.

Citations:

[1] https://cmsny.org/publications/mass-deportations-impoverish-us-families-create-immense-costs/

[2] https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/233150241700500101

[3] https://www.communitypsychology.com/effects-of-deportation-on-families-communities/

[4] https://reason.com/volokh/2024/03/10/mass-deportations-of-immigrants-destroy-more-native-born-american-jobs-than-they-create/

[5] https://washingtonmonthly.com/2024/05/21/trumps-plans-for-mass-deportation-would-be-an-economic-disaster/

Higher Education Inquirer Views, By Nation (Includes Hong Kong, Israel, Hungary, China, and Iran)

Here's a Google graphic of views by nation of the Higher Education Inquirer over the last 30 days.  Almost every view from Israel came on one day last week.  Also note the views from Hong Kong, Hungary, China, and Iran. Is anyone else observing this type of internet traffic? And what exactly does it mean?    

Here are the all-time views.