The National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) has documented the decline in community college enrollment for more than a decade. And the Higher Education Inquirer has been reporting on the decline for much of that time.
The question we are asking now is, where is the floor for the community college meltdown? The answer, from what we gather, is not clear. Folks should not assume the bottom has already been felt, even if there are signs of a rebound.
The downward path for community colleges is likely the result of several factors related to economics (including the economics of individual states and counties), demographics, and consumer choices. And we do not see these variables, in general, improving in the near future. Especially in states with declining youth and young adult populations.
If state-level austerity lies ahead for many states, the floor could be lowered, even though these community colleges provide job training at a fraction of the cost of state universities. Working class folks, in particular, would have to change the way they think about themselves and their perceptions of community colleges. And community colleges would need to provide stronger returns on investment for those who attend.
There are some bright spots, including the use of College Promise (low-cost college) in many states and proposed increases in funding in California. Community colleges have also shored up these declines with dual enrollment (high school students taking courses).
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