The US Department of Education (ED) continues to paint rosy projections about higher education enrollment despite harsh economic and demographic realities--and increasing skepticism about the value of college degrees.
Since 2011, higher education enrollment has declined every year--a more than decade long trend. The Covid pandemic of 2020 to 2022 made matters worse with domestic and foreign enrollment-- (temporarily) ameliorated by government bailouts and untested online education. Foreign enrollment continues to languish. And the enrollment cliff of 2026, a ripple effect of the 2008 Great Recession, is now just around the corner.
ED is projecting enrollment losses in 2022 and 2023, but why is it projecting enrollment gains from 2024 to 2030? Apparently, one of the problems is with old and faulty Census projections made during the Trump era that were not corrected.
Based on these Census numbers and other factors, the Department of Education's National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) projects increases in high school graduation numbers. The Western Interstate Commission for Higher (WICHE), in contrast, projects declines in high school graduates starting about 2025. (see graph below).
For ED, relying on overly optimistic projections for high school graduates creates a statistical train wreck that's made even worse by what's not in their formula.
Popular opinion about college has been declining for years, and there is no indication that attitudes will improve. A growing number of younger folks have joined the "educated underclass," becoming disaffected by underemployment and oppressive student loan debt. While progressive policies could change attitudes, deep skepticism about the value of education is an important statistical wildcard.
This is not the first time that the Higher Education Inquirer has questioned overly optimistic US Department of Education projections. While NCES has updated projections from time to time, it seems to have relied too much on the past and been too slow to change.
Related link: Online Postsecondary Education and Labor Productivity (Caroline Hoxby)
Related link: U.S. Universities Face Headwinds In Recruiting International Students (Michael T. Nietzel, Forbes)
Related link: Demographics and the Demand for Higher Education (Nathan Grawe)
Related link Why U.S. Population Growth Is Collapsing (Derek Thompson, The Atlantic)
Related link: Economic Well-Being of U.S. Households in 2021 (Federal Reserve)
Related link: Many US States Have Seen Enrollment Drops of More Than 20 Percent (Glen McGhee and Dahn Shaulis)
Related link: Community Colleges at the Heart of the College Meltdown
Related link: Projections of Education Statistics to 2028 (NCES)
Scary! Very scary that US ED is this political and have compromised their professionalism -- I wish that I knew my way around these population projections, which should have reached some kind of consensus by now (i.e., it's been one hundred years since Pearl) -- even with Covid-crash and high school declines. Certainly, losing 2 years in math and reading will restrict the HE feeder pipeline to a trickle, right? Why not be honest, instead of ignoring it?
ReplyDeleteGlen, you make good points. The Higher Education Inquirer has had issues with ED's enrollment projections for years. While they have adjusted their formula from time to time, they have always been a few steps behind. That's why the National Student Clearinghouse and other organizations are essential. In the future, they may need behavioral economists to take part in the projections. https://www.highereducationinquirer.org/2017/09/trumps-education-department-fails-to.html
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